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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Metalist 1925 Kharkiv edge out Kudrivka 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv beat Kudrivka 1-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.41 xG and Kudrivka 0.55 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 1.02 / defence 0.65 against Kudrivka attack 0.73 / defence 1.11, drawn from 23/23 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 58% | Draw 27% | Kudrivka 14%, with Metalist 1925 Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 58%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 58% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 32% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 24%, Kudrivka 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 28% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kudrivka's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.96. The form guide was vindicated by the result.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights