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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Metalist 1925 Kharkiv defy the odds to beat Dynamo Kyiv 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv beat Dynamo Kyiv 1-0 at Tsentralnyi Stadion, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 0.88 xG and Dynamo Kyiv 1.53 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dynamo Kyiv landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.77 / defence 0.83 against Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.52 / defence 0.96, drawn from 21/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 21% | Draw 26% | Dynamo Kyiv 53%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 53%. Instead the game produced a Metalist 1925 Kharkiv win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 21%, Dynamo Kyiv 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (24 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 54% of the time, and duly kept one.

Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (24 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.75 PPG, Dynamo Kyiv 1.79 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Metalist 1925 Kharkiv win broke the near-deadlock. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 2.60 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights