Lviv 0-3 Dnipro-1 – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Dnipro-1 at 50% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Lviv vs Dnipro-1 encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 5 sees Dnipro-1 travel to Stadion SKIF to take on Lviv. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 October 2022, 13:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Lviv stand at 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.40 PPG. Last five: D L D L W. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lviv's home record at Stadion SKIF: 1W 3D 6L from 10 Premier League appearances (0.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.60 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Stadion SKIF this season.
Dnipro-1 — All Games: 9W 0D 1L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.70 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.70 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. Dnipro-1 have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Dnipro-1 have posted 6W 1D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.90 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Dnipro-1 are 1.30 PPG ahead (2.70 vs 1.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Lviv, 1 for Dnipro-1 and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The last 1 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.0 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 2 Oct 2021, ended 0–1 with Dnipro-1 winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Lviv in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at home): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; BTTS occurs in 60% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
Dnipro-1 in-play and half-time data (21 games, 10 at away): they score before half-time in 90% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 57% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Lviv 48% versus Dnipro-1 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Lviv 38% | Dnipro-1 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Lviv 1.07 xG and Dnipro-1 1.59 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Lviv attack 1.053 / defence 1.212 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.231 / defence 0.861. League average goals — home 1.181 / away 1.068. Dnipro-1 have an above-average attack strength of 1.231 — the away xG of 1.59 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 22 Lviv games / 21 Dnipro-1 games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Lviv 26% | Draw 25% | Dnipro-1 50%. Fair-value odds: Lviv 3.85 | Draw 4.00 | Dnipro-1 2.00. Dnipro-1 hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (25%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.67. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.67 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Dnipro-1 are the pick at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 25% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Dnipro-1 offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.67 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 50% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates are neutral: Lviv 60% | Dnipro-1 30%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Lviv vs Dnipro-1 | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion SKIF • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Lviv 26% | Draw 25% | Dnipro-1 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 52% | xG Lviv 1.07 / Dnipro-1 1.59 • Poisson strength factors: Lviv attack 1.053 / def 1.212 | Dnipro-1 attack 1.231 / def 0.861 | league avg home 1.181 / away 1.068 • Poisson stance: Dnipro-1 (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Lviv xG
Expected Goals
1.59
Dnipro-1 xG
52%
BTTS
74%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Lviv vs Dnipro-1 kick off?
Lviv vs Dnipro-1 kicked off at 13:00 on Saturday 1 October 2022 at Stadion SKIF.
What was the final score in Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Lviv 0 - 3 Dnipro-1.
Where is Lviv vs Dnipro-1 being played?
The match is being played at Stadion SKIF.
What competition is Lviv vs Dnipro-1 part of?
Lviv vs Dnipro-1 is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Our statistical model gives Lviv a 26% chance of winning, Dnipro-1 a 50% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dnipro-1 the favourite.
Will both teams score in Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Lviv and Dnipro-1 will score (BTTS).
Will Lviv vs Dnipro-1 have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Dnipro-1?
Record (1 meetings): Lviv 0W | Draws 0 | Dnipro-1 1W.
What form are Lviv and Dnipro-1 in?
Lviv (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-D-L-W. Dnipro-1 (all comps): 9W-0D-1L in 10 | 2.70 PPG | GF 2.70 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Lviv's attack rating (1.05) and Dnipro-1's defence rating (0.86), the model arrives at 1.07 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Dnipro-1's attack versus Lviv's defence, projects 1.59 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 22/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.5%), 1-2 (9.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dnipro-1 Win
26%
3.92
25%
4.00
50%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Lviv xG
Total xG
2.67
1.59
Dnipro-1 xG
3.92
26%
Home win
4.00
25%
Draw
2.02
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.91
48%
BTTS No
2.10
Clean Sheet
20%
4.92
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
5%
19.29
17%
5.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.0 | 11.1 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.5 | 11.9 | 9.5 | 5.0 | 2.0 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 6.4 | 5.1 | 2.7 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.4 | 2.3 | 1.8 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Lviv and Dnipro-1 expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Lviv and 1.59 for Dnipro-1, a combined total of 2.67.
How confident is the prediction model for Lviv vs Dnipro-1?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Lviv come into this having played 21 games, going 5W 5D 11L for 0.95 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-D-L-W. It's still early in the season for Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Dnipro-1 sit at 2.33 PPG from 21 outings (16W 1D 4L), a run that reads W-W-W-W-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Dnipro-1, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dnipro-1 carry the stronger recent form of the two, 1.38 PPG clear of Lviv — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Lviv's home form reads 1W 3D 6L across 10 games on their own ground, a 0.60 PPG return.
Away from home, Dnipro-1 have taken 1.90 points per game from 10 outings (6W 1D 3L). That's a step down from their 2.33 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dnipro-1's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dnipro-1 come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Lviv are averaging 0.76 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; Dnipro-1 are on 2.05 scored and 0.81 conceded.
Defensively: Dnipro-1 in 52% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 21 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Lviv
Early Season
Dnipro-1
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Lviv and Dnipro-1 in coming into this match?
Lviv have gone 5W 5D 11L in their last 21 games (0.95 PPG), while Dnipro-1 have gone 16W 1D 4L in their last 21 (2.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Lviv at home or Dnipro-1 away?
Dnipro-1's away record (1.90 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Lviv at home: 0.60 PPG; Dnipro-1 away: 1.90 PPG.
Have Lviv or Dnipro-1 been keeping clean sheets recently?
Lviv have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Dnipro-1 in 52%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Lviv and Dnipro-1 runs to 3 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 April 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Dnipro-1 have won the last 3 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Oct 2022, when Dnipro-1 won 0-3 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Lviv's record when hosting Dnipro-1 specifically: 0W 0D 2L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 3 Meetings
0
Lviv
0
Draws
3
Dnipro-1
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Lviv and Dnipro-1?
From 3 meetings on record, Lviv have won 0, Dnipro-1 have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Lviv and Dnipro-1 last play each other?
They last met on 9 April 2023, when Dnipro-1 5-2 Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Lviv and Dnipro-1?
Dnipro-1 have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 3 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Dnipro-1 are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Lviv 60%, Dnipro-1 30% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Lviv) and 60% (Dnipro-1). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 20% and 10% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Dnipro-1 in 50%; Lviv have failed to score in 40% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Lviv home games / Dnipro-1 away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Lviv play Dnipro-1?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 60% of Lviv's recent matches and 30% of Dnipro-1's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Lviv vs Dnipro-1 usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Lviv's matches and 60% of Dnipro-1's.
Do Lviv and Dnipro-1 tend to score early?
Lviv have had a goal before half-time in 60% of their recent matches, Dnipro-1 in 90% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant Dnipro-1 run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Lviv.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dnipro-1 beat Lviv 0-3 at Stadion SKIF, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Lviv 1.07 xG and Dnipro-1 1.59 xG, a combined 2.67. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Lviv fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Dnipro-1 outscored their 1.59 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Lviv attack 1.05 / defence 1.21 against Dnipro-1 attack 1.23 / defence 0.86, drawn from 22/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Lviv 26% | Draw 25% | Dnipro-1 50%, with Dnipro-1 to win its most likely call at 50%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Lviv 38%, Dnipro-1 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Lviv's trading profile (21 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dnipro-1's trading profile (21 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Dnipro-1 arrived the stronger side — 2.33 PPG against 0.95. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Lviv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.80 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.80 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dnipro-1 (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.60 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.90 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.