Chornomorets 1-2 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Oleksandria at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Chornomorets vs Oleksandria fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Oleksandria make the trip to Stadion Kovalivka to face Chornomorets in Premier League, Regular Season - 5. The match kicks off on Sunday 2 October 2022 at 13:00 UTC.
Current Form
Chornomorets's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. Chornomorets have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Chornomorets's home record at Stadion Kovalivka: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Oleksandria (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L W W L D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Oleksandria have posted 2W 6D 2L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.90 PPG for Chornomorets against 1.40 for Oleksandria. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Chornomorets lead 0W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 27 Aug 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading & In-Play
Chornomorets — key trading statistics (22 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
Oleksandria — key trading statistics (22 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 42% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Chornomorets 59% versus Oleksandria 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Chornomorets 64% | Oleksandria 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Chornomorets 0.88 xG and Oleksandria 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Chornomorets attack 0.896 / defence 0.999 | Oleksandria attack 0.915 / defence 0.879. League average goals — home 1.120 / away 1.251. Data: 22 Chornomorets games / 22 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Chornomorets 28% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 42%. Fair-value odds: Chornomorets 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Oleksandria 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.03. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.03 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.03 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Chornomorets 70% | Oleksandria 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Chornomorets vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 5 | Venue: Stadion Kovalivka • Kick-off: Sunday 2 Oct 2022, 13:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Chornomorets 28% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 40% | xG Chornomorets 0.88 / Oleksandria 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: Chornomorets attack 0.896 / def 0.999 | Oleksandria attack 0.915 / def 0.879 | league avg home 1.120 / away 1.251 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Chornomorets xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Oleksandria xG
40%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Chornomorets vs Oleksandria kick off?
Chornomorets vs Oleksandria kicked off at 13:00 on Sunday 2 October 2022 at Stadion Kovalivka.
What was the final score in Chornomorets vs Oleksandria?
Chornomorets 1 - 2 Oleksandria.
Where is Chornomorets vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kovalivka.
What competition is Chornomorets vs Oleksandria part of?
Chornomorets vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 5 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Chornomorets vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Chornomorets a 28% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Chornomorets vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 40% probability that both Chornomorets and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Chornomorets vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Oleksandria?
Record (1 meetings): Chornomorets 0W | Draws 1 | Oleksandria 0W.
What form are Chornomorets and Oleksandria in?
Chornomorets (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-D-L. Oleksandria (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-W-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Chornomorets's attack at 0.90x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 0.88 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (0.92x) against Chornomorets's defence (1.00x) — and the away total comes out at 1.14.
These ratings are built from 22/22 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.9%), 0-1 (13.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
28%
3.56
30%
3.31
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Chornomorets xG
Total xG
2.03
1.14
Oleksandria xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.31
30%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
40%
BTTS Yes
2.50
60%
BTTS No
1.67
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
9%
11.16
17%
5.81
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 15.1 | 8.6 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.6 | 13.3 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.1 | 5.9 | 3.4 | 1.3 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.7 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Chornomorets vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Chornomorets and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Chornomorets and 1.14 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 2.03.
How confident is the prediction model for Chornomorets vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Chornomorets come into this having played 22 games, going 3W 7D 12L for 0.73 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-D-D-L. It's still early in the season for Chornomorets, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Oleksandria sit at 1.50 PPG from 22 outings (9W 6D 7L), a run that reads L-W-W-L-D across their last five. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Oleksandria carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.77 PPG clear of Chornomorets — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Chornomorets's home form reads 2W 4D 6L across 12 games on their own ground, a 0.83 PPG return.
Away from home, Oleksandria have taken 1.25 points per game from 12 outings (3W 6D 3L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Oleksandria come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Chornomorets are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.09 scored and 0.95 conceded.
Defensively: Oleksandria in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 22 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Chornomorets
Early Season
Oleksandria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Chornomorets and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Chornomorets have gone 3W 7D 12L in their last 22 games (0.73 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 9W 6D 7L in their last 22 (1.50 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Chornomorets at home or Oleksandria away?
Oleksandria's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Chornomorets at home: 0.83 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Chornomorets or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Chornomorets have kept a clean sheet in 9% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 7 times since August 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 24 May 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Chornomorets won 1-5 on 22 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Chornomorets have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 7 Meetings
2
Chornomorets
3
Draws
2
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Chornomorets and Oleksandria?
From 7 meetings on record, Chornomorets have won 2, Oleksandria have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Chornomorets and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2025, when Chornomorets 0-0 Oleksandria.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Chornomorets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 42% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Chornomorets 58%, Oleksandria 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Chornomorets) and 33% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Oleksandria in 33%; Chornomorets have failed to score in 42% of games; Oleksandria in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Chornomorets home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Chornomorets play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Chornomorets's recent matches and 50% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Chornomorets vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Chornomorets's recent games and 33% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Chornomorets and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Chornomorets have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 42% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oleksandria edge out Chornomorets 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Chornomorets 1-2 at Stadion Kovalivka, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Chornomorets 0.88 xG and Oleksandria 1.14 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Oleksandria outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Chornomorets attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against Oleksandria attack 0.92 / defence 0.88, drawn from 22/22 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Chornomorets 28% | Draw 30% | Oleksandria 42%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 42%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Chornomorets 64%, Oleksandria 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 55%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Chornomorets's trading profile (22 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did.
Oleksandria's trading profile (22 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Oleksandria arrived the stronger side — 1.50 PPG against 0.73. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Oleksandria (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.