LNZ Cherkasy 2-2 Shakhtar Donetsk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shakhtar Donetsk at 40% — the head-to-head data provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
LNZ Cherkasy host Shakhtar Donetsk at Cherkasy Arena in Premier League (matchday 23). Kick-off is Monday 13 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time.
Form Guide
LNZ Cherkasy — last 10 games: 9W 0D 1L, averaging 2.70 points per game. Last five: L W W W W. They are averaging 2.10 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence.
LNZ Cherkasy at home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 7 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (70%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.90 lags behind their overall 2.70 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Across their last 10 games, Shakhtar Donetsk have recorded 8W 2D 0L — 2.60 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.90 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 8 clean sheets from 10 games (80%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 5D 0L (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.90 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (70%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: LNZ Cherkasy 2.70 PPG, Shakhtar Donetsk 2.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. LNZ Cherkasy's 10% BTTS rate and Shakhtar Donetsk's 30% (from LNZ Cherkasy's last 10 home games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 10 away games) are both low — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H Record
Despite the home advantage, Shakhtar Donetsk have the better record in our head-to-head data — 4 wins from 5 H2H matches against 1 for LNZ Cherkasy.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture — the 5 H2H matches in our data averaged 4.4 per game, which gives Over 2.5 a solid head-to-head foundation. The most recent of those, on 5 Oct 2025, ended LNZ Cherkasy 4–1 Shakhtar Donetsk — a LNZ Cherkasy win.
The H2H data backs the away side. Shakhtar Donetsk have won 4 of 5 H2H matches, and at 4.4 goals per game the goals market also points upward — the away win and Over 2.5 combination has a head-to-head case.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (last 51 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 33%; BTTS occurs in 33% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time.
Shakhtar Donetsk trading profile (last 51 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; they lead at the break 45% of the time; of the 5 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 41%; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 37% versus Shakhtar Donetsk 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 31% | Shakhtar Donetsk 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.93 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.14 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.022 / defence 0.864 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.133 / defence 0.766. League average goals — home 1.190 / away 1.167. Shakhtar Donetsk bring a tight defence (rating 0.766, below 1 = concedes less than average) — this is pulling LNZ Cherkasy's projected output down. Data: built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 52 games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 51.
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 30% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.38 | Draw 3.34 | Shakhtar Donetsk 2.47. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS Yes probability 41% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 59% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shakhtar Donetsk at 40% — marginal model lean. The head-to-head data (Shakhtar Donetsk 4 wins from 5 H2H matches) corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shakhtar Donetsk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 66% probability — mixed conviction, supported by recent form (LNZ Cherkasy's last 10 home games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 10 away games) averaging 2.0 goals per game — though the H2H data averaging 4.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches points the other way.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 59%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: LNZ Cherkasy 10% (last 10 home games) | Shakhtar Donetsk 30% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk | Competition: Premier League, matchday 23 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Monday 13 April 2026 at 12:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 30% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% (Under 66%) | BTTS Yes 41% (No 59%) | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.93 / Shakhtar Donetsk 1.14 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.022 / def 0.864 | Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.133 / def 0.766 | league avg home 1.190 / away 1.167 • Poisson stance: Shakhtar Donetsk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.14
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
41%
BTTS
61%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk FAQs
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk kicked off at 12:00 UK time on Monday 13 April 2026 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
LNZ Cherkasy 2 - 2 Shakhtar Donetsk.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk is a Premier League fixture (matchday 23) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 30% chance of winning, Shakhtar Donetsk a 40% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shakhtar Donetsk the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (59%).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (66%).
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
The model rates LNZ Cherkasy's attack at 1.02x the league average against Shakhtar Donetsk's defence at 0.77x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Shakhtar Donetsk's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.14 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from LNZ Cherkasy's last 52 games and Shakhtar Donetsk's last 51 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.3%), 0-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shakhtar Donetsk Win
30%
3.38
30%
3.34
40%
2.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.4%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
0 – 0
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.08
1.14
Shakhtar Donetsk xG
3.38
30%
Home win
3.34
30%
Draw
2.47
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.42
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
32%
3.14
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
9%
10.60
16%
6.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.6 | 14.4 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.7 | 13.4 | 7.6 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 6.2 | 3.6 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.14 for Shakhtar Donetsk, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 22W 12D 17L from 51 games, a 1.53 PPG return, with L-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Shakhtar Donetsk, meanwhile, have gone 33W 13D 5L across 51 games — 2.20 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shakhtar Donetsk by 0.67 — a real, if not enormous, edge over LNZ Cherkasy heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 11W 5D 8L from their last 24 home games — 1.58 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record stands at 13W 9D 2L across their last 24 away games, a 2.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shakhtar Donetsk come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Shakhtar Donetsk are on 2.35 scored and 0.75 conceded. Shakhtar Donetsk's attacking output running into LNZ Cherkasy's solid defensive record is the key goals-market tension in this fixture.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games; Shakhtar Donetsk in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy (Home) vs Shakhtar Donetsk (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Shakhtar Donetsk
Blended
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk Form FAQs
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 22W 12D 17L in their last 51 games (1.53 PPG), while Shakhtar Donetsk have gone 33W 13D 5L in their last 51 (2.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Shakhtar Donetsk away?
Shakhtar Donetsk's away record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.58 PPG; Shakhtar Donetsk away: 2.00 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Shakhtar Donetsk been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, Shakhtar Donetsk in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The head-to-head numbers here are drawn from the 7 H2H matches in our data, going back to October 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 20 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 6 Oct 2024, when Shakhtar Donetsk won Shakhtar Donetsk 5-1 LNZ Cherkasy.
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Shakhtar Donetsk specifically: 0W 1D 2L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
1
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
5
Shakhtar Donetsk
Recent Meetings
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, LNZ Cherkasy have won 1, Shakhtar Donetsk have won 5, and 1 has been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 20 September 2026: Shakhtar Donetsk 3-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk?
Shakhtar Donetsk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Shakhtar Donetsk see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 22% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 33%, Shakhtar Donetsk 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 29% for LNZ Cherkasy and 38% for Shakhtar Donetsk.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Shakhtar Donetsk in 58%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Shakhtar Donetsk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ LNZ Cherkasy vs Shakhtar Donetsk Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 33% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 38% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 29% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 38% of Shakhtar Donetsk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 67% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 46% of Shakhtar Donetsk's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
LNZ Cherkasy and Shakhtar Donetsk finished level at 2-2 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.93 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.14 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.14 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.02 / defence 0.86 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.13 / defence 0.77, drawn from 52/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Draw 30% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 61% and landed. Over 3.5 was 16% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 31%, Shakhtar Donetsk 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (51 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (51 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.20 PPG against 1.53. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.08 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.83 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.62 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.