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Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 1-4 hammering of LNZ Cherkasy.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shakhtar Donetsk beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-4 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.81 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.02 xG, a combined 1.83. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.02 projection by 3.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.94 / defence 1.03 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.12 / defence 0.74, drawn from 53/52 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 28% | Draw 32% | Shakhtar Donetsk 40%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 40%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 55% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 42%, Shakhtar Donetsk 54%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (52 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (52 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.27 PPG against 1.27. The form guide was vindicated by the result. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.17 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.92 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights