LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Polessya at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Polessya travel to to take on LNZ Cherkasy. The game is scheduled for Saturday 21 November 2026, 16:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W D L W L. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 0.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. LNZ Cherkasy have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
LNZ Cherkasy's home record at : 5W 3D 2L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at . At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — LNZ Cherkasy are significantly better at than their overall form suggests.
Polessya — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W W W L W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 0.90. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Polessya have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Polessya have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form points away from home here. Polessya's 2.20 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of LNZ Cherkasy's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. LNZ Cherkasy's 30% rate and Polessya's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 6 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for LNZ Cherkasy, 3 for Polessya and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 28 Feb 2026, ended 1–3 with Polessya winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
LNZ Cherkasy trading profile (34 games, 17 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 18% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 65% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Polessya trading profile (34 games, 17 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; they lead at the break 53% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 53% of the time.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (LNZ Cherkasy 18% | Polessya 35%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 26% | Polessya 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 0.90 xG and Polessya 1.20 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.964 / defence 0.866 | Polessya attack 1.257 / defence 0.798. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 1.103. Polessya's defence strength of 0.798 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Polessya have an above-average attack strength of 1.257 — the away xG of 1.20 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 34 LNZ Cherkasy games / 34 Polessya games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 26% | Draw 32% | Polessya 42%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Polessya 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Polessya as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Polessya offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 30% | Polessya 30% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: • Kick-off: Saturday 21 Nov 2026, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 26% | Draw 32% | Polessya 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 43% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 0.90 / Polessya 1.20 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.964 / def 0.866 | Polessya attack 1.257 / def 0.798 | league avg home 1.164 / away 1.103 • Poisson stance: Polessya (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
1.20
Polessya xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 on Saturday 21 November 2026.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 26% chance of winning, Polessya a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Polessya the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya?
Record (6 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 2W | Draws 1 | Polessya 3W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-L-W-L. Polessya (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
LNZ Cherkasy's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against Polessya's defensive record (0.80x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.90. The same calculation in reverse, Polessya's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 1.20 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 34/34 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.9%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Polessya Win
26%
3.83
32%
3.11
42%
2.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.8%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.09
1.20
Polessya xG
3.83
26%
Home win
3.11
32%
Draw
2.40
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.34
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
30%
3.32
41%
2.45
Win to Nil
8%
12.71
17%
5.87
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 14.8 | 8.9 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.0 | 13.2 | 7.9 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.9 | 5.9 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.9%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 1.20 for Polessya, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
LNZ Cherkasy's recent record stands at 19W 7D 8L from 34 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-D-L-W-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Polessya, meanwhile, have gone 21W 5D 8L across 34 games — 2.00 PPG, with W-W-W-L-W in their last five. It's still early in the season for Polessya, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Form-wise this is close to level: LNZ Cherkasy on 1.88 PPG, Polessya on 2.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, LNZ Cherkasy have managed 9W 4D 4L from 17 games — 1.82 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Polessya's away record stands at 12W 1D 4L across 17 trips, a 2.18 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 0.62 conceded per game recently; Polessya are on 1.74 scored and 0.74 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: LNZ Cherkasy have seen both teams score in 18% of their recent games.
Defensively: LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 65% of their games; Polessya in 53% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Early Season
Polessya
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 19W 7D 8L in their last 34 games (1.88 PPG), while Polessya have gone 21W 5D 8L in their last 34 (2.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Polessya away?
Polessya's away record (2.18 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.82 PPG; Polessya away: 2.18 PPG.
Have LNZ Cherkasy or Polessya been keeping clean sheets recently?
LNZ Cherkasy have kept a clean sheet in 65% of their recent games, Polessya in 53%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to August 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 28 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Polessya specifically: 0W 0D 3L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
2
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
3
Polessya
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, Polessya have won 3, and 1 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2026, when LNZ Cherkasy 1-3 Polessya.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya?
Polessya have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time.
Polessya are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 59% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — LNZ Cherkasy 18% BTTS, Polessya 29%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 18% for LNZ Cherkasy and 47% for Polessya.
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy keep a clean sheet in 65% of their matches; Polessya in 59%; LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 29% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Polessya away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Polessya?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 18% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 29% of Polessya's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Polessya usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 18% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 47% of Polessya's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Polessya tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Polessya in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.