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Shock result as Polessya defy the odds to beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.52 xG and Polessya 0.93 xG, a combined 2.45. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. LNZ Cherkasy fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.03 / defence 1.06 against Polessya attack 1.03 / defence 1.18, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 51% | Draw 26% | Polessya 23%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Polessya win, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 43%, Polessya 41%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Polessya's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.29 PPG, Polessya 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Polessya win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward. Polessya (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.12 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights