🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant LNZ Cherkasy run riot with a 3-0 hammering of Obolon'-Brovar.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

LNZ Cherkasy beat Obolon'-Brovar 3-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 15, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 0.75 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.74 xG, a combined 1.49. The scoreboard read 3-0 for 3 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy beat their projection by 2.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.74 / defence 0.70 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 32% | Draw 37% | Obolon'-Brovar 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 37%. The actual LNZ Cherkasy win had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 44% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 25%, Obolon'-Brovar 41%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (44 games, 22 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and duly kept one.

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (44 games, 22 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 54% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 1.36 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 1.11 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.36 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights