LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 63% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 13 as LNZ Cherkasy welcome Obolon'-Brovar to Cherkasy Arena. Kick-off is set for Saturday 9 November 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L W L W. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Cherkasy Arena, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 7W 1D 2L this season (10 games, 2.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 2.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.50 — LNZ Cherkasy are significantly better at Cherkasy Arena than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Obolon'-Brovar stand at 1W 2D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.50 PPG. Last five: W L L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.30 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Obolon'-Brovar, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Obolon'-Brovar's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.
LNZ Cherkasy carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.00 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.50 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for LNZ Cherkasy, 1 for Obolon'-Brovar and 0 shared spoils from 2 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 May 2024, ended 0–1 with Obolon'-Brovar winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
LNZ Cherkasy in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 71% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar in-play tendencies (42 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 52% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 50% versus Obolon'-Brovar 29%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (LNZ Cherkasy 45% | Obolon'-Brovar 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.70 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.092 / defence 0.949 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.595 / defence 1.349. League average goals — home 1.151 / away 1.084. Obolon'-Brovar bring a strong defensive rating of 1.349 — this is suppressing LNZ Cherkasy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 42 LNZ Cherkasy games / 42 Obolon'-Brovar games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 63% | Draw 25% | Obolon'-Brovar 12%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 1.59 | Draw 4.00 | Obolon'-Brovar 8.33. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (63%) — a 51pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 38% | Total xG 2.31. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.31 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 38% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 63% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.31 combined xG gives a 41% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 38% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 40% | Obolon'-Brovar 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Cherkasy Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 9 Nov 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 63% | Draw 25% | Obolon'-Brovar 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 38% | xG LNZ Cherkasy 1.70 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.61 • Poisson strength factors: LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.092 / def 0.949 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.595 / def 1.349 | league avg home 1.151 / away 1.084 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (63%) — strong lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.70
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Expected Goals
0.61
Obolon'-Brovar xG
38%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 9 November 2024 at Cherkasy Arena.
What was the final score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
LNZ Cherkasy 0 - 1 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Cherkasy Arena.
What competition is LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives LNZ Cherkasy a 63% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 12% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar will score (BTTS).
Will LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar?
Record (2 meetings): LNZ Cherkasy 1W | Draws 0 | Obolon'-Brovar 1W.
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar in?
LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-L-W-L-W. Obolon'-Brovar (all comps): 1W-2D-7L in 10 | 0.50 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from LNZ Cherkasy's attack rating (1.09) and Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating (1.35), the model arrives at 1.70 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus LNZ Cherkasy's defence, projects 0.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.5%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.3%), 1-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
63%
1.60
25%
3.94
12%
8.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.9%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.3%
Home win
1 – 1
10.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.70
LNZ Cherkasy xG
Total xG
2.31
0.61
Obolon'-Brovar xG
1.60
63%
Home win
3.94
25%
Draw
8.34
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.60
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
54%
1.85
18%
5.45
Win to Nil
34%
2.95
2%
45.47
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.9 | 6.1 | 1.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.9 | 10.3 | 3.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.3 | 8.8 | 2.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 8.1 | 5.0 | 1.5 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.5%.
How many goals are LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.70 expected goals for LNZ Cherkasy and 0.61 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.31.
How confident is the prediction model for LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
LNZ Cherkasy come into this having played 42 games, going 16W 11D 15L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads D-L-W-L-W. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Obolon'-Brovar sit at 0.83 PPG from 42 outings (7W 14D 21L), a run that reads W-L-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for Obolon'-Brovar is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.57 PPG clear of Obolon'-Brovar — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
LNZ Cherkasy's home form reads 9W 4D 8L across 21 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Obolon'-Brovar have taken 0.57 points per game from 21 outings (2W 6D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, LNZ Cherkasy come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
LNZ Cherkasy are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.21 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.55 scored and 1.52 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Obolon'-Brovar in 29%.
Last 42 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
LNZ Cherkasy have gone 16W 11D 15L in their last 42 games (1.40 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 7W 14D 21L in their last 42 (0.83 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — LNZ Cherkasy at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
LNZ Cherkasy's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — LNZ Cherkasy at home: 1.48 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.57 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar runs to 6 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 24 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: LNZ Cherkasy have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Oct 2023, when LNZ Cherkasy won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
LNZ Cherkasy's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 2W 0D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
LNZ Cherkasy
1
Draws
2
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar?
From 6 meetings on record, LNZ Cherkasy have won 3, Obolon'-Brovar have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
They last met on 24 May 2026, when Obolon'-Brovar 0-1 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Obolon'-Brovar see a goal before the break in 52% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — LNZ Cherkasy 48%, Obolon'-Brovar 29% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (LNZ Cherkasy) and 38% (Obolon'-Brovar).
On the defensive side: LNZ Cherkasy have failed to score in 29% of games; Obolon'-Brovar in 67%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = LNZ Cherkasy home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when LNZ Cherkasy play Obolon'-Brovar?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent matches and 29% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is LNZ Cherkasy vs Obolon'-Brovar usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of LNZ Cherkasy's recent games and 38% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do LNZ Cherkasy and Obolon'-Brovar tend to score early?
LNZ Cherkasy have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Obolon'-Brovar in 52% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Obolon'-Brovar defy the odds to beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat LNZ Cherkasy 0-1 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.70 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.61 xG, a combined 2.31. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. LNZ Cherkasy fell 1.7 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.09 / defence 0.95 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.59 / defence 1.35, drawn from 42/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 63% | Draw 25% | Obolon'-Brovar 12%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 63%. Instead the game produced a Obolon'-Brovar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 12% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 68% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 45%, Obolon'-Brovar 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (42 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 33% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (42 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 1.40 PPG against 0.83. Form was overturned, with Obolon'-Brovar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.71 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.