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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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LNZ Cherkasy and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

LNZ Cherkasy and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv finished level at 1-1 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.07 xG and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.02 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.09 / defence 0.94 against Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.90 / defence 0.78, drawn from 54/24 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 36% | Draw 30% | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 34%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 26% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 30%, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 26%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (27 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (27 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — LNZ Cherkasy 2.00 PPG, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.89 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights