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Prediction vindicated as LNZ Cherkasy edge out Kudrivka 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

LNZ Cherkasy beat Kudrivka 1-0 at Cherkasy Arena, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting LNZ Cherkasy 1.51 xG and Kudrivka 0.72 xG, a combined 2.23. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.75 / defence 0.73 against Kudrivka attack 0.72 / defence 1.74, drawn from 43/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it LNZ Cherkasy 56% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 18%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 65% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 40% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (LNZ Cherkasy 13%, Kudrivka 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (15 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and duly kept one.

Kudrivka's trading profile (15 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.13. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kudrivka (home/away splits) conceded 1 against a 2.43 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights