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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this LNZ Cherkasy vs Kudrivka encounter.

✍️ Match Preview

Analysis

Kudrivka make the trip to Cherkasy Arena to face LNZ Cherkasy in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Saturday 29 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

LNZ Cherkasy have collected 1.90 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 6W 1D 3L. Last five: W W L W W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.

LNZ Cherkasy at Cherkasy Arena this season: 3W 4D 3L from 10 home games — 1.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Cherkasy Arena. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 1.30 lags behind their overall 1.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Cherkasy Arena this season.

Kudrivka's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 2D 6L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: D L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Kudrivka's form when playing away from home: 1W 0D 6L across 7 road games this term (0.43 PPG). Away from home they average 0.71 goals scored and 2.43 conceded per game.

The points-per-game gap of 1.10 in LNZ Cherkasy's favour (1.90 vs 0.80) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.

Trading

LNZ Cherkasy half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 0% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.

Kudrivka half-time and goal-timing data (15 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in away games; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 47%.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — LNZ Cherkasy 20% versus Kudrivka 67%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (LNZ Cherkasy 13% | Kudrivka 67%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects LNZ Cherkasy 1.51 xG and Kudrivka 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.753 / defence 0.733 | Kudrivka attack 0.717 / defence 1.742. League average goals — home 1.150 / away 1.367. LNZ Cherkasy's attack strength of 0.753 is below the league average — the 1.51 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Kudrivka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.742 — this is suppressing LNZ Cherkasy's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. LNZ Cherkasy's defence rating of 0.733 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 43 LNZ Cherkasy games / 13 Kudrivka games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: LNZ Cherkasy 56% | Draw 26% | Kudrivka 18%. Fair-value odds: LNZ Cherkasy 1.79 | Draw 3.85 | Kudrivka 5.56. The model has a clear lean to LNZ Cherkasy (56%) — a 38pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 40% | Total xG 2.23. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.23 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 40% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

The Poisson model projects 2.23 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

Poisson assigns a 40% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: LNZ Cherkasy 20% | Kudrivka 43% BTTS from recent games.

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