Livyi Bereh 0-2 Zorya Luhansk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Zorya Luhansk at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Livyi Bereh host Zorya Luhansk at Stadion Livyi Bereh in Premier League, Regular Season - 11. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 27 October 2024 at 10:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Livyi Bereh have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh at Stadion Livyi Bereh this season: 2W 2D 4L from 8 home games — 1.00 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.25 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Zorya Luhansk stand at 4W 0D 6L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L W L L. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Zorya Luhansk, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Zorya Luhansk's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Livyi Bereh at 0.80 PPG versus Zorya Luhansk's 1.20. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Livyi Bereh in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; BTTS occurs in 14% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 64% of games.
Zorya Luhansk in-play and half-time data (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 29% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Livyi Bereh 21% | Zorya Luhansk 36%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Livyi Bereh 29% | Zorya Luhansk 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Livyi Bereh 0.75 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Livyi Bereh attack 0.585 / defence 1.197 | Zorya Luhansk attack 0.870 / defence 1.095. League average goals — home 1.165 / away 1.108. Livyi Bereh's attack strength of 0.585 is below the league average — the 0.75 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 10 Livyi Bereh games / 40 Zorya Luhansk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 23% | Draw 33% | Zorya Luhansk 44%. Fair-value odds: Livyi Bereh 4.35 | Draw 3.03 | Zorya Luhansk 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 30% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 1.90. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 70% probability — total xG of 1.90 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Zorya Luhansk are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Zorya Luhansk offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.90 combined xG gives a 30% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 37% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Livyi Bereh 25% | Zorya Luhansk 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Stadion Livyi Bereh • Kick-off: Sunday 27 Oct 2024, 10:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Livyi Bereh 23% | Draw 33% | Zorya Luhansk 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 30% | BTTS 37% | xG Livyi Bereh 0.75 / Zorya Luhansk 1.16 • Poisson strength factors: Livyi Bereh attack 0.585 / def 1.197 | Zorya Luhansk attack 0.870 / def 1.095 | league avg home 1.165 / away 1.108 • Poisson stance: Zorya Luhansk (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.75
Livyi Bereh xG
Expected Goals
1.16
Zorya Luhansk xG
37%
BTTS
58%
Over 1.5
30%
Over 2.5
13%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk kick off?
Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk kicked off at 10:00 on Sunday 27 October 2024 at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What was the final score in Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk?
Livyi Bereh 0 - 2 Zorya Luhansk.
Where is Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Livyi Bereh.
What competition is Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk part of?
Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our statistical model gives Livyi Bereh a 23% chance of winning, Zorya Luhansk a 44% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Zorya Luhansk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk will score (BTTS).
Will Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 30%.
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk in?
Livyi Bereh (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. Zorya Luhansk (all comps): 4W-0D-6L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-L-W-L-L.
What do the betting odds say about Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Livyi Bereh's attack rating (0.58) and Zorya Luhansk's defence rating (1.09), the model arrives at 0.75 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Zorya Luhansk's attack versus Livyi Bereh's defence, projects 1.16 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 16.6%. Close behind: 0-1 (15.6%), 1-1 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Zorya Luhansk Win
23%
4.38
33%
3.06
44%
2.25
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.2%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.9%
Draw
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.75
Livyi Bereh xG
Total xG
1.90
1.16
Zorya Luhansk xG
4.38
23%
Home win
3.06
33%
Draw
2.25
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
57%
Over 1.5
1.75
43%
Under 1.5
2.33
30%
Over 2.5
3.33
70%
Under 2.5
1.43
13%
Over 3.5
7.69
87%
Under 3.5
1.15
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.71
63%
BTTS No
1.59
Clean Sheet
32%
3.17
47%
2.11
Win to Nil
7%
13.90
21%
4.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.9 | 17.2 | 10.0 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 11.2 | 12.9 | 7.4 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.2 | 4.8 | 2.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.6%.
How many goals are Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk expected to score?
The model projects 0.75 expected goals for Livyi Bereh and 1.16 for Zorya Luhansk, a combined total of 1.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 14 outings, Livyi Bereh have picked up 0.93 PPG on a 3W 4D 7L record — L-L-L-D-D across the most recent five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Zorya Luhansk's form line: 5W 1D 8L from 14 games, 1.14 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-L. The sample for Zorya Luhansk is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Livyi Bereh on 0.93 PPG, Zorya Luhansk on 1.14. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Livyi Bereh have posted 1.00 PPG from 7 outings (2W 1D 4L).
On the road, Zorya Luhansk have gone 3W 0D 4L from 7 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
The Goals Picture
Livyi Bereh are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Zorya Luhansk are on 0.86 scored and 1.14 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Livyi Bereh have seen both teams score in 21% of their recent games.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Livyi Bereh
Blended
Zorya Luhansk
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk in coming into this match?
Livyi Bereh have gone 3W 4D 7L in their last 14 games (0.93 PPG), while Zorya Luhansk have gone 5W 1D 8L in their last 14 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Livyi Bereh at home or Zorya Luhansk away?
Zorya Luhansk's away record (1.29 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Livyi Bereh at home: 1.00 PPG; Zorya Luhansk away: 1.29 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to October 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 25 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Livyi Bereh
0
Draws
2
Zorya Luhansk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk?
From 2 meetings on record, Livyi Bereh have won 0, Zorya Luhansk have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk last play each other?
They last met on 25 April 2025, when Zorya Luhansk 2-1 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk?
Zorya Luhansk have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Livyi Bereh see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
Zorya Luhansk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Livyi Bereh 14% BTTS, Zorya Luhansk 29%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Livyi Bereh) and 43% (Zorya Luhansk).
On the defensive side: Zorya Luhansk in 43%; Livyi Bereh have failed to score in 57% of games; Zorya Luhansk in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Livyi Bereh home games / Zorya Luhansk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Livyi Bereh play Zorya Luhansk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 14% of Livyi Bereh's recent matches and 29% of Zorya Luhansk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Livyi Bereh vs Zorya Luhansk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Livyi Bereh's recent games and 43% of Zorya Luhansk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Livyi Bereh and Zorya Luhansk tend to score early?
Livyi Bereh have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, Zorya Luhansk in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Zorya Luhansk cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Livyi Bereh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Zorya Luhansk beat Livyi Bereh 0-2 at Stadion Livyi Bereh, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 0.75 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.16 xG, a combined 1.90. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Zorya Luhansk outscored their 1.16 projection by 0.8. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 0.58 / defence 1.20 against Zorya Luhansk attack 0.87 / defence 1.09, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 23% | Draw 33% | Zorya Luhansk 44%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 30%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 58% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 29%, Zorya Luhansk 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 29%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 21% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 64% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Livyi Bereh 0.93 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.14 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.86 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.14 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.