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Prediction vindicated as Livyi Bereh edge out Oleksandria 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Livyi Bereh beat Oleksandria 1-0 at Arena Livyi Bereg, Final, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Livyi Bereh 1.51 xG and Oleksandria 1.22 xG, a combined 2.74. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Oleksandria landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Livyi Bereh attack 1.01 / defence 1.00 against Oleksandria attack 0.98 / defence 1.24, drawn from 30/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Livyi Bereh 43% | Draw 27% | Oleksandria 30%, with Livyi Bereh to win its most likely call at 43%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 52%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 76% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Livyi Bereh 29%, Oleksandria 49%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (35 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did not.

Oleksandria's trading profile (35 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 43% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Livyi Bereh 0.89 PPG, Oleksandria 0.80 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Livyi Bereh win broke the near-deadlock. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Oleksandria (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights