🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Kudrivka and Zorya Luhansk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kudrivka and Zorya Luhansk finished level at 2-2 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.17 xG and Zorya Luhansk 1.39 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Kudrivka beat their projection by 0.8 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 0.97 / defence 1.18 against Zorya Luhansk attack 0.96 / defence 1.04, drawn from 16/46 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 31% | Draw 28% | Zorya Luhansk 41%, with Zorya Luhansk to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 61%, Zorya Luhansk 44%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kudrivka's trading profile (18 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (18 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

On form, Zorya Luhansk arrived the stronger side — 1.44 PPG against 1.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Zorya Luhansk (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights