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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Vorskla Poltava edge out Kudrivka 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Vorskla Poltava beat Kudrivka 1-2 at Obolon Arena, Relegation Round, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 0.83 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.89 xG, a combined 1.72. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Vorskla Poltava outscored their 0.89 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 0.85 / defence 1.15 against Vorskla Poltava attack 0.77 / defence 0.85, drawn from 0/60 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 29% | Draw 38% | Vorskla Poltava 33%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual Vorskla Poltava win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 25%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 53% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights