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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as Kudrivka take on Vorskla Poltava.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Vorskla Poltava make the trip to Obolon Arena to face Kudrivka in Premier League, Relegation Round. The match kicks off on Thursday 29 May 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Vorskla Poltava's overall Premier League record this term: 2W 3D 5L from 10 games (0.90 PPG). Last five: W D L D D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Vorskla Poltava away from home this season: 2W 4D 4L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 0.83 xG and Vorskla Poltava 0.89 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 0.850 / defence 1.150 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.770 / defence 0.850. League average goals — home 1.148 / away 1.009. Data: 0 Kudrivka games / 60 Vorskla Poltava games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 29% | Draw 38% | Vorskla Poltava 33%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 3.45 | Draw 2.63 | Vorskla Poltava 3.03. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 25% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.72. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 75% probability — total xG of 1.72 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Kudrivka's lower xG of 0.83 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Picks & Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 29% and away win at 33% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
Poisson projects 1.72 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 25% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava | Competition: Premier League, Relegation Round | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Thursday 29 May 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
⚔️ Head-to-Head History
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
📈 Recent Form
• Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-D • Vorskla Poltava away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | CS 4
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 29% | Draw 38% | Vorskla Poltava 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 25% | BTTS 35% | xG Kudrivka 0.83 / Vorskla Poltava 0.89 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 0.850 / def 1.150 | Vorskla Poltava attack 0.770 / def 0.850 | league avg home 1.148 / away 1.009 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.83
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
0.89
Vorskla Poltava xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
25%
Over 2.5
10%
Over 3.5
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❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava kick off?
Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava kicked off at 13:30 on Thursday 29 May 2025 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Kudrivka 1 - 2 Vorskla Poltava.
Where is Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava part of?
Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava is a Relegation Round fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 29% chance of winning, Vorskla Poltava a 33% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Kudrivka and Vorskla Poltava will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 25%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and Vorskla Poltava?
• No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset
What form are Kudrivka and Vorskla Poltava in?
• Vorskla Poltava (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-D-L-D-D • Vorskla Poltava away split: 1.00 PPG from 10 | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | CS 4
What do the betting odds say about Kudrivka vs Vorskla Poltava?
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture