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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shakhtar Donetsk cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kudrivka.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Kudrivka 1-3 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 0.86 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.79 xG, a combined 2.66. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.79 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 0.79 / defence 1.18 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.26 / defence 0.87, drawn from 24/54 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 18% | Draw 23% | Shakhtar Donetsk 59%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 59%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 74% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 50%, Shakhtar Donetsk 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kudrivka's trading profile (26 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (26 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 62% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.35 PPG against 0.92. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kudrivka (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.46 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 2.08 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights