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Polessya cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kudrivka.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Polessya beat Kudrivka 0-2 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 21, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 0.87 xG and Polessya 1.83 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kudrivka fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 0.89 / defence 1.12 against Polessya attack 1.40 / defence 0.82, drawn from 20/50 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 17% | Draw 23% | Polessya 60%, with Polessya to win its most likely call at 60%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 45% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 54%, Polessya 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kudrivka's trading profile (22 games, 10 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.

Polessya's trading profile (22 games, 10 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

On form, Polessya arrived the stronger side — 1.95 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Kudrivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.60 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights