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Prediction vindicated as Kudrivka edge out Obolon'-Brovar 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kudrivka beat Obolon'-Brovar 1-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.29 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.20 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Obolon'-Brovar landed 1.2 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 1.22 / defence 1.09 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.86 / defence 0.93, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 37% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 33%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 37%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 67%, Obolon'-Brovar 42%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kudrivka's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did not.

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 42% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kudrivka 1.17 PPG, Obolon'-Brovar 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kudrivka win broke the near-deadlock. Kudrivka (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights