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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kudrivka and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kudrivka and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv finished level at 1-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.41 xG and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.49 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 1.26 / defence 1.13 against Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 35% | Draw 26% | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 39%, with Metalist 1925 Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 70%, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 10%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kudrivka's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kudrivka (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights