Kudrivka 1-1 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 39% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 9 sees FC Kharkiv travel to Obolon Arena to take on Kudrivka. The game is scheduled for Monday 20 October 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kudrivka stand at 4W 1D 5L from 10 Premier League matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: D L L W L. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Kudrivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kudrivka's form when playing at home: 3W 1D 1L across 5 games at Obolon Arena this term (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 100% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.00 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Kudrivka are significantly better at Obolon Arena than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 6W 3D 1L from 10 outings — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W D W W D. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.50 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv away from home this season: 3W 2D 1L from 6 away games — 1.83 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game.
Form points away from home here. FC Kharkiv's 2.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Kudrivka's 1.30 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
Kudrivka in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at home): they score before half-time in 100% of fixtures in home games; BTTS occurs in 100% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 100% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 40%.
FC Kharkiv in-play tendencies (10 games, 5 at away): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 20% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kudrivka 70% versus FC Kharkiv 30%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kudrivka 70% | FC Kharkiv 10%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kudrivka 1.41 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.49 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kudrivka attack 1.265 / defence 1.129 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.995 / defence 0.972. League average goals — home 1.147 / away 1.327. Kudrivka carry an above-average attack strength of 1.265 — their λ of 1.41 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 8 Kudrivka games / 8 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kudrivka 35% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 39%. Fair-value odds: Kudrivka 2.86 | Draw 3.85 | FC Kharkiv 2.56. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 59% | Total xG 2.90. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.90 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 59% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, FC Kharkiv are the pick at 39% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on FC Kharkiv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.90 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 59% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Kudrivka 100% | FC Kharkiv 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 35% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Obolon Arena • Kick-off: Monday 20 Oct 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kudrivka 35% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 39% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 59% | xG Kudrivka 1.41 / FC Kharkiv 1.49 • Poisson strength factors: Kudrivka attack 1.265 / def 1.129 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.995 / def 0.972 | league avg home 1.147 / away 1.327 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.41
Kudrivka xG
Expected Goals
1.49
FC Kharkiv xG
59%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
33%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 16:00 on Monday 20 October 2025 at Obolon Arena.
What was the final score in Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Kudrivka 1 - 1 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Obolon Arena.
What competition is Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Kudrivka a 35% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 39% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 59% probability that both Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv in?
Kudrivka (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 W-D-W-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kudrivka's attack at 1.26x the league average against FC Kharkiv's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.41 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Kudrivka's defence, projects 1.49 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 8/8 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 2-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 30% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
35%
2.84
26%
3.84
39%
2.58
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
8.6%
Away win
0 – 1
8.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.41
Kudrivka xG
Total xG
2.90
1.49
FC Kharkiv xG
2.84
35%
Home win
3.84
26%
Draw
2.58
39%
Away win
Goals Markets
79%
Over 1.5
1.27
21%
Under 1.5
4.76
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
33%
Over 3.5
3.03
67%
Under 3.5
1.49
17%
Over 4.5
5.88
83%
Under 4.5
1.20
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
59%
BTTS Yes
1.69
41%
BTTS No
2.45
Clean Sheet
23%
4.44
24%
4.10
Win to Nil
8%
12.60
9%
10.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.5 | 8.2 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 7.8 | 11.6 | 8.6 | 4.3 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 8.1 | 6.1 | 3.0 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.6 | 3.8 | 2.9 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 0.9 | 1.4 | 1.0 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.41 expected goals for Kudrivka and 1.49 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.90.
How confident is the prediction model for Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 10 outings, Kudrivka have picked up 1.30 PPG on a 4W 1D 5L record — D-L-L-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Kudrivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv's form line: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games, 2.10 PPG, last five W-D-W-W-D. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, FC Kharkiv are the form team by 0.80 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Kudrivka.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kudrivka have posted 2.00 PPG from 5 outings (3W 1D 1L). That's noticeably better than their 1.30 PPG overall — Kudrivka are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 away games — 2.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Kudrivka are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.30 scored and 0.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kudrivka have seen both teams score in 70% of their recent games; FC Kharkiv in 30%.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 60% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 10 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kudrivka
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Kudrivka have gone 4W 1D 5L in their last 10 games (1.30 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 3D 1L in their last 10 (2.10 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kudrivka at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Kudrivka's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kudrivka at home: 2.00 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 2.00 PPG.
Have Kudrivka or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kudrivka have kept a clean sheet in 10% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 60%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
2 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2025. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kudrivka
1
Draws
1
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv?
From 2 meetings on record, Kudrivka have won 0, FC Kharkiv have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-0 Kudrivka.
Who has won more matches between Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv?
FC Kharkiv have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 60% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 40% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 20% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Both teams scoring has been the norm for this pairing lately — Kudrivka at 100%, FC Kharkiv at 40%. That combined rate makes BTTS Yes a well-supported trading angle.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 100% for Kudrivka and 20% for FC Kharkiv. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 60% and 20% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kudrivka home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kudrivka play FC Kharkiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of Kudrivka's games and 40% of FC Kharkiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Kudrivka vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of Kudrivka's matches and 20% of FC Kharkiv's.
Do Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Kudrivka have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 80% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kudrivka and FC Kharkiv finished level at 1-1 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.41 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.49 xG, a combined 2.90. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 1.26 / defence 1.13 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.99 / defence 0.97, drawn from 8/8 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 35% | Draw 26% | FC Kharkiv 39%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 79% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 70%, FC Kharkiv 10%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kudrivka's trading profile (10 games, 5 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 70% of their matches — today it did.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (10 games, 5 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 60% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 2.10 PPG against 1.30. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kudrivka (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.20 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.