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Shock result as Kudrivka defy the odds to beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-0.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kudrivka beat LNZ Cherkasy 1-0 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 0.69 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.67 xG, a combined 2.36. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. LNZ Cherkasy landed 1.7 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 0.86 / defence 1.23 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.07 / defence 0.63, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 14% | Draw 26% | LNZ Cherkasy 60%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a Kudrivka win, an outcome the model had rated at just 14% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 50%, LNZ Cherkasy 27%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 42%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kudrivka's trading profile (30 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not.

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (30 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 23% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 67% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 27% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, LNZ Cherkasy arrived the stronger side — 1.97 PPG against 0.93. Form was overturned, with Kudrivka winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kudrivka (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.57 scoring average — below par going forward.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights