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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Kolos Kovalivka cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Kudrivka.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Kolos Kovalivka beat Kudrivka 1-3 at Obolon Arena, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kudrivka 1.41 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.27 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka outscored their 1.27 projection by 1.7. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kudrivka attack 1.20 / defence 0.98 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 1.01 / defence 1.04, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kudrivka 40% | Draw 27% | Kolos Kovalivka 33%, with Kudrivka to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual Kolos Kovalivka win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kudrivka 62%, Kolos Kovalivka 31%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kudrivka's trading profile (13 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.

Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (13 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kudrivka 1.31 PPG, Kolos Kovalivka 1.54 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Kolos Kovalivka win broke the near-deadlock. Kudrivka (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.00 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.17 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights