Kolos Kovalivka 0-2 Obolon'-Brovar – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Kolos Kovalivka at 56% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka welcome Obolon'-Brovar to Kolos Stadium in Premier League (matchday 29). Kick-off is Sunday 17 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
Kolos Kovalivka's form when playing at home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 home games (1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.80 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Obolon'-Brovar — last 10 games: 0W 5D 5L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: D L D D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.10 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%). Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Obolon'-Brovar's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 2.00 conceded per game.
Kolos Kovalivka carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Kolos Kovalivka have won 0, Obolon'-Brovar 0, with 5 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 0.8 per game across the 5 H2H matches we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 28 Nov 2025, ended Kolos Kovalivka 0–0 Obolon'-Brovar — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.8 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Kolos Kovalivka trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 46% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; of the 15 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 40%; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 14% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
Obolon'-Brovar trading profile (last 57 games, 28 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 27%; BTTS occurs in 36% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (away games); they fail to score in 49% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kolos Kovalivka 39% versus Obolon'-Brovar 37%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 25% | Obolon'-Brovar 46%). Note also that Obolon'-Brovar surrender HT leads in 27% of cases while Kolos Kovalivka recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 40% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 1.49 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.65 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.826 / defence 0.649 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.784 / defence 1.415. League average goals — home 1.271 / away 1.272. Obolon'-Brovar's defence rating of 1.415 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Kolos Kovalivka's projected output up. Obolon'-Brovar's attack rating of 0.784 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.65. Kolos Kovalivka have a tight defence (rating 0.649), which is pulling Obolon'-Brovar's projected output down. Data: built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 58 games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 57.
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 56% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 15%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 1.78 | Draw 3.46 | Obolon'-Brovar 6.74. The model has a clear lean to Kolos Kovalivka (56%) — a 27pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS Yes probability 38% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 62% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Kolos Kovalivka are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 29% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.13 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 64% probability — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Kolos Kovalivka's last 10 home games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 10 away games) averaging 2.1 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 0.8 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 62%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Kolos Kovalivka 30% (last 10 home games) | Obolon'-Brovar 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar | Competition: Premier League, matchday 29 | Venue: Kolos Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 17 May 2026 at 14:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 56% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 15% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% (Under 64%) | BTTS Yes 38% (No 62%) | xG Kolos Kovalivka 1.49 / Obolon'-Brovar 0.65 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.826 / def 0.649 | Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.784 / def 1.415 | league avg home 1.271 / away 1.272 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
0.65
Obolon'-Brovar xG
38%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar FAQs
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar kicked off at 14:30 UK time on Sunday 17 May 2026 at Kolos Stadium.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Kolos Kovalivka 0 - 2 Obolon'-Brovar.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar being played?
The match is being played at Kolos Stadium.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar is a Premier League fixture (matchday 29) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 56% chance of winning, Obolon'-Brovar a 15% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our model estimates a 38% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and Obolon'-Brovar will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (62%).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (64%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Kolos Kovalivka's attack at 0.83x the league average against Obolon'-Brovar's defence at 1.42x — combine the two and it projects 1.49 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Obolon'-Brovar's attack versus Kolos Kovalivka's defence, projects 0.65 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Kolos Kovalivka's last 58 games and Obolon'-Brovar's last 57 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.3%), 2-0 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
56%
1.78
29%
3.46
15%
6.74
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.1%
Home win
0 – 0
11.8%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
2.13
0.65
Obolon'-Brovar xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.46
29%
Draw
6.74
15%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
38%
BTTS Yes
2.62
62%
BTTS No
1.62
Clean Sheet
52%
1.91
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
29%
3.40
3%
29.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.8 | 7.7 | 2.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.6 | 11.4 | 3.7 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.1 | 8.5 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.5 | 4.2 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.1%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and Obolon'-Brovar expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 0.65 for Obolon'-Brovar, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 57 outings, Kolos Kovalivka have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 20W 21D 16L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five.
Obolon'-Brovar's form line: 13W 18D 26L from 57 games, 1.00 PPG, last five D-L-D-D-L.
Put side by side, Kolos Kovalivka are the form team by 0.42 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Obolon'-Brovar.
Venue Form
On home soil, Kolos Kovalivka have posted 1.32 PPG from their last 28 home games (8W 13D 7L).
On the road, Obolon'-Brovar have gone 7W 4D 17L from their last 28 away games — 0.89 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kolos Kovalivka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.95 goals scored and 0.81 conceded per game recently; Obolon'-Brovar are on 0.74 scored and 1.60 conceded.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Current Season
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
Kolos Kovalivka (Home) vs Obolon'-Brovar (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Kolos Kovalivka
Current Season
Obolon'-Brovar
Blended
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar Form FAQs
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and Obolon'-Brovar in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 20W 21D 16L in their last 57 games (1.42 PPG), while Obolon'-Brovar have gone 13W 18D 26L in their last 57 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or Obolon'-Brovar away?
Kolos Kovalivka's home record (1.32 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.32 PPG; Obolon'-Brovar away: 0.89 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or Obolon'-Brovar been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Obolon'-Brovar in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 3 years from July 2023. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 28 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Kolos Kovalivka's record when hosting Obolon'-Brovar specifically: 0W 3D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
0
Kolos Kovalivka
6
Draws
1
Obolon'-Brovar
Recent Meetings
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and Obolon'-Brovar?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Kolos Kovalivka have won 0, Obolon'-Brovar have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and Obolon'-Brovar last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 28 August 2026: Kolos Kovalivka 0-0 Obolon'-Brovar.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and Obolon'-Brovar?
Obolon'-Brovar have the better head-to-head record, with 1 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Kolos Kovalivka see a goal before the break in 46% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 40% of those situations.
Obolon'-Brovar are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kolos Kovalivka 39%, Obolon'-Brovar 36% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 14% for Kolos Kovalivka and 54% for Obolon'-Brovar.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 43% of games; Obolon'-Brovar in 54%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / Obolon'-Brovar away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Kolos Kovalivka vs Obolon'-Brovar Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Kolos Kovalivka and Obolon'-Brovar matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 39% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 36% of Obolon'-Brovar's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Kolos Kovalivka and Obolon'-Brovar matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 14% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 54% of Obolon'-Brovar's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and Obolon'-Brovar matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 46% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 71% of Obolon'-Brovar's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Obolon'-Brovar cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kolos Kovalivka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Obolon'-Brovar beat Kolos Kovalivka 0-2 at Kolos Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 1.49 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.65 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Obolon'-Brovar outscored their 0.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.83 / defence 0.65 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.78 / defence 1.42, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 56% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 15%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Obolon'-Brovar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 25%, Obolon'-Brovar 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
On form, Kolos Kovalivka arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Obolon'-Brovar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.