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Obolon'-Brovar cruise to a comfortable 0-2 victory over Kolos Kovalivka.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Obolon'-Brovar beat Kolos Kovalivka 0-2 at Kolos Stadium, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 1.49 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 0.65 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-2 for 2 actual goals. Kolos Kovalivka fell 1.5 short of their projected output. Obolon'-Brovar outscored their 0.65 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.83 / defence 0.65 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.78 / defence 1.42, drawn from 58/57 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 56% | Draw 29% | Obolon'-Brovar 15%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Obolon'-Brovar win, an outcome the model had rated at just 15% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 38% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 35% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 25%, Obolon'-Brovar 46%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not.

Form vs Result

On form, Kolos Kovalivka arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 1.00. Form was overturned, with Obolon'-Brovar winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.71 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.68 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.68 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights