Kolos Kovalivka 1-1 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model favours Kolos Kovalivka (38%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Kolos Kovalivka face FC Kharkiv.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Kolos Kovalivka host FC Kharkiv at Stadion Kolos in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 7 April 2024 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Guide
Kolos Kovalivka — All Games: 2W 3D 5L from 10 Premier League outings this season, averaging 0.90 points per game. Last five: W L L L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Kolos Kovalivka, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadion Kolos, Kolos Kovalivka have gone 2W 4D 4L this season (10 games, 1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Kolos. At home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier League games this season, FC Kharkiv have recorded 0W 1D 9L from 10 outings — 0.10 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.80 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
FC Kharkiv's away record: 0W 2D 8L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (0.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 2.10 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On current form, Kolos Kovalivka have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (0.90 vs 0.10) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Kolos Kovalivka have won 3, FC Kharkiv 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The last 5 meetings have been tight affairs, averaging just 1.4 goals per game. That low-scoring pattern is a meaningful historical input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
Trading Patterns
Kolos Kovalivka in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 19% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 23% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time; they fail to score in 45% of games.
FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (51 games, 26 at away): they score before half-time in 65% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.
The in-play data supports BTTS No — both teams show low combined scoring rates (Kolos Kovalivka 26% | FC Kharkiv 43%). Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Kolos Kovalivka 24% | FC Kharkiv 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kolos Kovalivka 1.12 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.739 / defence 0.919 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.850 / defence 1.384. League average goals — home 1.091 / away 1.297. Kolos Kovalivka's attack strength of 0.739 is below the league average — the 1.12 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. FC Kharkiv bring a strong defensive rating of 1.384 — this is suppressing Kolos Kovalivka's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 51 Kolos Kovalivka games / 52 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 38% | Draw 30% | FC Kharkiv 33%. Fair-value odds: Kolos Kovalivka 2.63 | Draw 3.33 | FC Kharkiv 3.03. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kolos Kovalivka at 38% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Kolos Kovalivka offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.13 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 36% — reasonable confidence, supported by H2H averaging 1.4 goals per meeting.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 43% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kolos Kovalivka 10% | FC Kharkiv 60% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 33% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Kolos • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Apr 2024, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kolos Kovalivka 38% | Draw 30% | FC Kharkiv 33% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Kolos Kovalivka 1.12 / FC Kharkiv 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.739 / def 0.919 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.850 / def 1.384 | league avg home 1.091 / away 1.297 • Poisson stance: Kolos Kovalivka (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Expected Goals
1.01
FC Kharkiv xG
43%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 7 April 2024 at Stadion Kolos.
What was the final score in Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Kolos Kovalivka 1 - 1 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Kolos.
What competition is Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Kolos Kovalivka a 38% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 33% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Kolos Kovalivka the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv?
Record (5 meetings): Kolos Kovalivka 3W | Draws 1 | FC Kharkiv 1W.
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv in?
Kolos Kovalivka (all comps): 2W-3D-5L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-L-L-L-L. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 0W-1D-9L in 10 | 0.10 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.80 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Kolos Kovalivka's attacking strength (0.74x league average) is weighed against FC Kharkiv's defensive record (1.38x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.12. The same calculation in reverse, FC Kharkiv's attack versus Kolos Kovalivka's defence, projects 1.01 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.2%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kolos Kovalivka Win
38%
2.64
30%
3.37
33%
3.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
12.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Kolos Kovalivka xG
Total xG
2.13
1.01
FC Kharkiv xG
2.64
38%
Home win
3.37
30%
Draw
3.08
33%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.33
57%
BTTS No
1.75
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
14%
7.28
11%
9.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 12.0 | 6.1 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.4 | 7.5 | 3.8 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.8 | 2.8 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.2%.
How many goals are Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Kolos Kovalivka and 1.01 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kolos Kovalivka come into this having played 51 games, going 15W 15D 21L for 1.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-L-L. The sample for Kolos Kovalivka is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, FC Kharkiv sit at 0.92 PPG from 51 outings (10W 17D 24L), a run that reads L-L-D-L-L across their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Kolos Kovalivka on 1.18 PPG, FC Kharkiv on 0.92. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Kolos Kovalivka's home form reads 9W 6D 11L across 26 games on their own ground, a 1.27 PPG return.
Away from home, FC Kharkiv have taken 0.73 points per game from 26 outings (3W 10D 13L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kolos Kovalivka come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Kolos Kovalivka are averaging 0.75 goals scored and 1.04 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 0.88 scored and 1.63 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kolos Kovalivka have seen both teams score in 25% of their recent games.
Defensively: Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kolos Kovalivka
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Kolos Kovalivka have gone 15W 15D 21L in their last 51 games (1.18 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 10W 17D 24L in their last 51 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kolos Kovalivka at home or FC Kharkiv away?
Kolos Kovalivka's home record (1.27 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kolos Kovalivka at home: 1.27 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 0.73 PPG.
Have Kolos Kovalivka or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kolos Kovalivka have kept a clean sheet in 45% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 27%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to July 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 4 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 9 Apr 2023, when Kolos Kovalivka won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Kolos Kovalivka's record when hosting FC Kharkiv specifically: 2W 2D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kolos Kovalivka
3
Draws
2
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv?
From 8 meetings on record, Kolos Kovalivka have won 3, FC Kharkiv have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 4 April 2026, when Kolos Kovalivka 0-0 FC Kharkiv.
Who has won more matches between Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv?
Kolos Kovalivka have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Kolos Kovalivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 65% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Kolos Kovalivka 19% BTTS, FC Kharkiv 38%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 23% for Kolos Kovalivka and 35% for FC Kharkiv.
On the defensive side: Kolos Kovalivka keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Kolos Kovalivka have failed to score in 46% of games; FC Kharkiv in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kolos Kovalivka home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kolos Kovalivka play FC Kharkiv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 19% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent matches and 38% of FC Kharkiv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kolos Kovalivka vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 23% of Kolos Kovalivka's recent games and 35% of FC Kharkiv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Kolos Kovalivka have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 65% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadion Kolos, Regular Season - 23, as Kolos Kovalivka and FC Kharkiv drew 1-1 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kolos Kovalivka 1.12 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.01 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.74 / defence 0.92 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.85 / defence 1.38, drawn from 51/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kolos Kovalivka 38% | Draw 30% | FC Kharkiv 33%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 34% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kolos Kovalivka 24%, FC Kharkiv 45%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 34%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (51 games, 26 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 26% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and conceded here.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (51 games, 26 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Kolos Kovalivka 1.18 PPG, FC Kharkiv 0.92 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.