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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Shock result as Zorya Luhansk defy the odds to beat Karpaty 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Zorya Luhansk beat Karpaty 1-2 at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 30, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.73 xG and Zorya Luhansk 0.97 xG, a combined 2.70. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Zorya Luhansk outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 1.08 / defence 0.72 against Zorya Luhansk attack 1.10 / defence 1.30, drawn from 59/59 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karpaty 54% | Draw 26% | Zorya Luhansk 20%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 54%. Instead the game produced a Zorya Luhansk win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 48%, Zorya Luhansk 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karpaty's trading profile (59 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.

Zorya Luhansk's trading profile (59 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karpaty 1.47 PPG, Zorya Luhansk 1.41 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Zorya Luhansk win broke the near-deadlock. Karpaty (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.97 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights