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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Karpaty and SK Poltava share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Karpaty and SK Poltava finished level at 1-1 at Ukraina Stadium, Regular Season - 5, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Karpaty 1.96 xG and SK Poltava 1.15 xG, a combined 3.11. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Karpaty fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Karpaty attack 1.17 / defence 1.17 against SK Poltava attack 0.79 / defence 1.36, drawn from 34/4 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Karpaty 56% | Draw 22% | SK Poltava 22%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 60%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 82% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 59% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 62% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Karpaty 50%, SK Poltava 75%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 75%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Karpaty's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

SK Poltava's trading profile (4 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Karpaty 0.75 PPG, SK Poltava 0.75 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Karpaty conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line. SK Poltava conceded 1 against a 2.25 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights