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Dominant Shakhtar Donetsk run riot with a 1-4 hammering of Inhulets.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Shakhtar Donetsk beat Inhulets 1-4 at Stadion Ukraina, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.47 xG and Shakhtar Donetsk 1.52 xG, a combined 1.98. The scoreboard read 1-4 for 5 actual goals. Shakhtar Donetsk outscored their 1.52 projection by 2.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.59 / defence 1.11 against Shakhtar Donetsk attack 1.36 / defence 0.67, drawn from 28/58 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inhulets 11% | Draw 25% | Shakhtar Donetsk 64%, with Shakhtar Donetsk to win its most likely call at 64%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 32%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 59% and landed. Over 3.5 was 14% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 29% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 39%, Shakhtar Donetsk 57%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inhulets's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 32% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here.

Shakhtar Donetsk's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Shakhtar Donetsk arrived the stronger side — 2.07 PPG against 0.82. That form edge translated into the three points. Inhulets (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Shakhtar Donetsk (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.77 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.

💡 Key Insights