Inhulets 0-1 Ruh Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Inhulets at 36%, yet other data sources diverge — this Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier League clash, Regular Season - 20 as Inhulets welcome Ruh Lviv to Arena Lviv. Kick-off is set for Saturday 8 March 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier League games this season, Inhulets have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 outings — a 0.80 PPG return. Last five: L W L L W. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Inhulets's form when playing at home: 1W 0D 2L across 3 games at Arena Lviv this term (1.00 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.67 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game.
Ruh Lviv — All Games: 2W 4D 4L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Ruh Lviv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier League this season, Ruh Lviv have posted 2W 5D 3L from 10 away outings — 1.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.80 PPG (Inhulets) versus 1.00 (Ruh Lviv). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Inhulets, 2 for Ruh Lviv and 0 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 30 Aug 2024, ended 0–5 with Ruh Lviv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Inhulets in-play tendencies (18 games, 3 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games; they fail to score in 50% of games.
Ruh Lviv in-play tendencies (18 games, 3 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 57% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 39% of their matches; Over 2.5 goals lands in 22% of games; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 39% versus Ruh Lviv 39%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Inhulets 44% | Ruh Lviv 22%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.94 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.824 / defence 1.059 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.893 / defence 0.936. League average goals — home 1.212 / away 0.905. Data: 18 Inhulets games / 49 Ruh Lviv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 36% | Draw 33% | Ruh Lviv 31%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 2.78 | Draw 3.03 | Ruh Lviv 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 35% | Total xG 1.79. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.79 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 65% — Ruh Lviv's lower xG of 0.86 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 35%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Inhulets at 36% — marginal model lean. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inhulets offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 1.79 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 27% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 35% on No. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 0% | Ruh Lviv 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Arena Lviv • Kick-off: Saturday 8 Mar 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 36% | Draw 33% | Ruh Lviv 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 35% | xG Inhulets 0.94 / Ruh Lviv 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.824 / def 1.059 | Ruh Lviv attack 0.893 / def 0.936 | league avg home 1.212 / away 0.905 • Poisson stance: Inhulets (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Ruh Lviv xG
35%
BTTS
53%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv kick off?
Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 8 March 2025 at Arena Lviv.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv?
Inhulets 0 - 1 Ruh Lviv.
Where is Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv being played?
The match is being played at Arena Lviv.
What competition is Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv part of?
Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 36% chance of winning, Ruh Lviv a 31% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making Inhulets the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our model estimates a 35% probability that both Inhulets and Ruh Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Ruh Lviv?
Record (3 meetings): Inhulets 1W | Draws 0 | Ruh Lviv 2W.
What form are Inhulets and Ruh Lviv in?
Inhulets (all comps): 2W-2D-6L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-W-L-L-W. Ruh Lviv (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.20 | L5 D-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Inhulets's attack rating (0.82) and Ruh Lviv's defence rating (0.94), the model arrives at 0.94 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Ruh Lviv's attack versus Inhulets's defence, projects 0.86 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 18/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 0-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 18.4%. Close behind: 1-1 (15.1%), 1-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inhulets Win
36%
2.80
33%
3.04
31%
3.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
16.7%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
15.6%
Home win
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Inhulets xG
Total xG
1.79
0.86
Ruh Lviv xG
2.80
36%
Home win
3.04
33%
Draw
3.18
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
53%
Over 1.5
1.89
47%
Under 1.5
2.13
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
35%
BTTS Yes
2.86
65%
BTTS No
1.54
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
39%
2.55
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
12%
8.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.7 | 14.3 | 6.1 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.6 | 13.4 | 5.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.3 | 6.2 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.4%.
How many goals are Inhulets and Ruh Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Inhulets and 0.86 for Ruh Lviv, a combined total of 1.79.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 18 outings, Inhulets have picked up 0.67 PPG on a 2W 6D 10L record — L-W-L-L-W across the most recent five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Ruh Lviv's form line: 4W 8D 6L from 18 games, 1.11 PPG, last five D-W-L-L-L. The sample for Ruh Lviv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Ruh Lviv are the form team by 0.44 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Inhulets.
Venue Form
On home soil, Inhulets have posted 1.00 PPG from 3 outings (1W 0D 2L).
On the road, Ruh Lviv have gone 1W 1D 1L from 3 away games — 1.33 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Inhulets are averaging 0.78 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Ruh Lviv are on 0.94 scored and 0.94 conceded.
Defensively: Ruh Lviv in 39% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 18 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
Ruh Lviv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and Ruh Lviv in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 2W 6D 10L in their last 18 games (0.67 PPG), while Ruh Lviv have gone 4W 8D 6L in their last 18 (1.11 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or Ruh Lviv away?
Ruh Lviv's away record (1.33 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 1.00 PPG; Ruh Lviv away: 1.33 PPG.
Have Inhulets or Ruh Lviv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, Ruh Lviv in 39%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
4 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to April 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 8 March 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Ruh Lviv have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 30 Aug 2024, when Ruh Lviv won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Inhulets's record when hosting Ruh Lviv specifically: 1W 0D 1L from 2 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 4 Meetings
1
Inhulets
0
Draws
3
Ruh Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and Ruh Lviv?
From 4 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 1, Ruh Lviv have won 3, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and Ruh Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 8 March 2025, when Inhulets 0-1 Ruh Lviv.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and Ruh Lviv?
Ruh Lviv have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Ruh Lviv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 100% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 33% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
Clean sheets have been more common than shared scoring for these two — Inhulets 0% BTTS, Ruh Lviv 33%. That points toward BTTS No as the trading lean.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 0% for Inhulets and 0% for Ruh Lviv.
On the defensive side: Inhulets keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Ruh Lviv in 33%; Inhulets have failed to score in 67% of games; Ruh Lviv in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / Ruh Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play Ruh Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Inhulets's recent matches and 33% of Ruh Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs Ruh Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Inhulets's recent games and 0% of Ruh Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and Ruh Lviv tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Ruh Lviv in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Ruh Lviv defy the odds to beat Inhulets 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Ruh Lviv beat Inhulets 0-1 at Arena Lviv, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.94 xG and Ruh Lviv 0.86 xG, a combined 1.79. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Inhulets fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.82 / defence 1.06 against Ruh Lviv attack 0.89 / defence 0.94, drawn from 18/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 36% | Draw 33% | Ruh Lviv 31%, with Inhulets to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual Ruh Lviv win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 53% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 35% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 44%, Ruh Lviv 22%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (18 games, 3 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 50% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Ruh Lviv's trading profile (18 games, 3 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Ruh Lviv arrived the stronger side — 1.11 PPG against 0.67. That form edge translated into the three points. Ruh Lviv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.