Inhulets 0-0 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 36% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy meet at CSC Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 25. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 20 April 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Inhulets (all games): 3W 1D 6L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 1.00 PPG. Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Inhulets, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Inhulets have posted 2W 1D 5L at CSC Nika — 0.88 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.50 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game. 3 home clean sheets from 8 games (38%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 12% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
LNZ Cherkasy have collected 0.70 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 2W 1D 7L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for LNZ Cherkasy, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, LNZ Cherkasy have gone 2W 2D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.80 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.00 vs 0.70 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 3 meetings: Inhulets 0W, LNZ Cherkasy 2W, 1D.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 20 Oct 2024, ended 0–2 with LNZ Cherkasy winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Inhulets — key trading statistics (23 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 62% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 12% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 12% of games (home games); they fail to score in 52% of games.
LNZ Cherkasy — key trading statistics (23 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Inhulets 35% versus LNZ Cherkasy 56%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Inhulets 39% | LNZ Cherkasy 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Inhulets 0.74 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Inhulets attack 0.587 / defence 1.039 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.814 / defence 1.050. League average goals — home 1.198 / away 1.016. Inhulets's attack strength of 0.587 is below the league average — the 0.74 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 23 Inhulets games / 54 LNZ Cherkasy games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Inhulets 29% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 36%. Fair-value odds: Inhulets 3.45 | Draw 2.86 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 35% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 22% | BTTS probability 30% | Total xG 1.60. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 78% probability — total xG of 1.60 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 70% — Inhulets's lower xG of 0.74 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 30%.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, LNZ Cherkasy are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 35% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
Poisson projects 1.60 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 22% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 30% on No. Form rates corroborate: Inhulets 12% | LNZ Cherkasy 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: CSC Nika • Kick-off: Sunday 20 Apr 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Inhulets 29% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 22% | BTTS 30% | xG Inhulets 0.74 / LNZ Cherkasy 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Inhulets attack 0.587 / def 1.039 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.814 / def 1.050 | league avg home 1.198 / away 1.016 • Poisson stance: LNZ Cherkasy (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.74
Inhulets xG
Expected Goals
0.86
LNZ Cherkasy xG
30%
BTTS
47%
Over 1.5
22%
Over 2.5
8%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy kick off?
Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 20 April 2025 at CSC Nika.
What was the final score in Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Inhulets 0 - 0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Where is Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy being played?
The match is being played at CSC Nika.
What competition is Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy part of?
Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our statistical model gives Inhulets a 29% chance of winning, LNZ Cherkasy a 36% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw — making LNZ Cherkasy the favourite.
Will both teams score in Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our model estimates a 30% probability that both Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy will score (BTTS).
Will Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 22%.
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy?
Record (3 meetings): Inhulets 0W | Draws 1 | LNZ Cherkasy 2W.
What form are Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy in?
Inhulets (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. LNZ Cherkasy (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Inhulets's attack at 0.59x the league average against LNZ Cherkasy's defence at 1.05x — combine the two and it projects 0.74 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — LNZ Cherkasy's attack (0.81x) against Inhulets's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
These ratings are built from 23/54 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 21.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.7%), 1-1 (14.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 52% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
LNZ Cherkasy Win
29%
3.46
35%
2.83
36%
2.79
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
20.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
17.4%
Away win
1 – 0
15.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.74
Inhulets xG
Total xG
1.60
0.86
LNZ Cherkasy xG
3.46
29%
Home win
2.83
35%
Draw
2.79
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
47%
Over 1.5
2.13
53%
Under 1.5
1.89
22%
Over 2.5
4.55
78%
Under 2.5
1.28
8%
Over 3.5
12.50
92%
Under 3.5
1.09
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
30%
BTTS Yes
3.33
70%
BTTS No
1.43
Clean Sheet
42%
2.36
48%
2.09
Win to Nil
12%
8.16
17%
5.84
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 20.3 | 17.4 | 7.5 | 2.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 15.0 | 12.8 | 5.5 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 5.5 | 4.7 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 1.4 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 21.9%.
How many goals are Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy expected to score?
The model projects 0.74 expected goals for Inhulets and 0.86 for LNZ Cherkasy, a combined total of 1.60.
How confident is the prediction model for Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Inhulets's recent record stands at 3W 7D 13L from 23 games, a 0.70 PPG return, with L-W-D-L-L in the last five. The sample for Inhulets is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
LNZ Cherkasy, meanwhile, have gone 6W 4D 13L across 23 games — 0.96 PPG, with L-W-L-L-L in their last five. The sample for LNZ Cherkasy is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 0.70 PPG for Inhulets against 0.96 for LNZ Cherkasy. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Inhulets have managed 2W 1D 5L from 8 games — 0.88 PPG in front of their own supporters.
LNZ Cherkasy's away record stands at 2W 1D 5L across 8 trips, a 0.88 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Inhulets are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.57 conceded per game recently; LNZ Cherkasy are on 0.96 scored and 1.52 conceded.
Last 23 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Inhulets
Blended
LNZ Cherkasy
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy in coming into this match?
Inhulets have gone 3W 7D 13L in their last 23 games (0.70 PPG), while LNZ Cherkasy have gone 6W 4D 13L in their last 23 (0.96 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Inhulets at home or LNZ Cherkasy away?
Inhulets's home record (0.88 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Inhulets at home: 0.88 PPG; LNZ Cherkasy away: 0.88 PPG.
Have Inhulets or LNZ Cherkasy been keeping clean sheets recently?
Inhulets have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, LNZ Cherkasy in 13%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 4 times since June 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 20 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Inhulets have gone 0W 2D 0L from 2 meetings on their own ground against LNZ Cherkasy — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
0
Inhulets
2
Draws
2
LNZ Cherkasy
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy?
From 4 meetings on record, Inhulets have won 0, LNZ Cherkasy have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy last play each other?
They last met on 20 April 2025, when Inhulets 0-0 LNZ Cherkasy.
Who has won more matches between Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy?
LNZ Cherkasy have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 4 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Inhulets are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
LNZ Cherkasy are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 12% (Inhulets) and 50% (LNZ Cherkasy) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 12% for Inhulets and 38% for LNZ Cherkasy.
On the defensive side: Inhulets keep a clean sheet in 38% of their matches; Inhulets have failed to score in 62% of games; LNZ Cherkasy in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Inhulets home games / LNZ Cherkasy away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Inhulets play LNZ Cherkasy?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 12% of Inhulets's recent matches and 50% of LNZ Cherkasy's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Inhulets vs LNZ Cherkasy usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 12% of Inhulets's recent games and 38% of LNZ Cherkasy's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy tend to score early?
Inhulets have had a goal before half-time in 62% of their recent matches, LNZ Cherkasy in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Inhulets's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 25, as Inhulets and LNZ Cherkasy drew 0-0 in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.74 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 0.86 xG, a combined 1.60. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. LNZ Cherkasy landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.59 / defence 1.04 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.81 / defence 1.05, drawn from 23/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Inhulets 29% | Draw 35% | LNZ Cherkasy 36%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 36%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 35%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 22%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 47% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 30% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 39%, LNZ Cherkasy 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Inhulets's trading profile (23 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 35% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 52% of games, a blank that repeated today.
LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (23 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 30% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.70 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 0.96 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Inhulets (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.50 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.