🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Prediction vindicated as Inhulets edge out Livyi Bereh 2-1.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inhulets beat Livyi Bereh 2-1 at CSC Nika, Regular Season - 28, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.78 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.69 xG, a combined 1.46. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Inhulets beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.52 / defence 1.08 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.62 / defence 1.30, drawn from 27/27 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inhulets 33% | Draw 39% | Livyi Bereh 28%, with the draw its most likely call at 39%. The actual Inhulets win had been the model's second-ranked read at 33%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 18%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 44% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 33% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 37%, Livyi Bereh 30%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 26%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inhulets's trading profile (27 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 30% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Livyi Bereh's trading profile (27 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 22% of their matches — today it did.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Inhulets 0.74 PPG, Livyi Bereh 0.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Inhulets win broke the near-deadlock. Inhulets (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.42 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.

💡 Key Insights