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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Inhulets cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Kryvbas KR.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Inhulets beat Kryvbas KR 2-0 at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Inhulets 0.71 xG and Kryvbas KR 1.32 xG, a combined 2.03. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Inhulets beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kryvbas KR landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Inhulets attack 0.67 / defence 1.21 against Kryvbas KR attack 1.13 / defence 0.93, drawn from 17/47 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Inhulets 20% | Draw 29% | Kryvbas KR 51%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 51%. Instead the game produced a Inhulets win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 60% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Inhulets 47%, Kryvbas KR 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Inhulets's trading profile (17 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not.

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (17 games) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.82 PPG against 0.53. Form was overturned, with Inhulets winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Inhulets scored 2 against a 0.71 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.88 average — tighter than their form line. Kryvbas KR managed 0 against a 1.29 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.94 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.

💡 Key Insights