Kryvbas KR 0-1 Oleksandria – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Oleksandria at 36% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadion Hirnyk plays host to Kryvbas KR versus Oleksandria in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Saturday 28 September 2024 at 11:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Kryvbas KR have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L W D W D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadion Hirnyk, Kryvbas KR have gone 5W 4D 1L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadion Hirnyk. Their home PPG of 1.90 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — Kryvbas KR are significantly better at Stadion Hirnyk than their overall form suggests.
Oleksandria (all games): 7W 3D 0L across 10 Premier League outings this term — 2.40 points per game. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Oleksandria have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 5W 4D 1L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Oleksandria are the stronger side — 1.00 PPG clear of the hosts (2.40 vs 1.40). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 4 head-to-head meetings have produced 2 wins for Kryvbas KR, 2 for Oleksandria and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.2 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 2 Dec 2023, ended 2–1 with Kryvbas KR winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
Kryvbas KR half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Oleksandria half-time and goal-timing data (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Kryvbas KR 44% versus Oleksandria 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 47% | Oleksandria 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 0.95 xG and Oleksandria 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 0.929 / defence 0.867 | Oleksandria attack 1.029 / defence 0.804. League average goals — home 1.270 / away 1.134. Data: 36 Kryvbas KR games / 36 Oleksandria games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 32% | Draw 32% | Oleksandria 36%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 3.12 | Draw 3.12 | Oleksandria 2.78. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 31% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 1.96. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 69% probability — total xG of 1.96 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Oleksandria are the pick at 36% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 32% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Oleksandria if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.96 combined xG gives a 31% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 39%. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 40% | Oleksandria 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadion Hirnyk • Kick-off: Saturday 28 Sep 2024, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 32% | Draw 32% | Oleksandria 36% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 31% | BTTS 39% | xG Kryvbas KR 0.95 / Oleksandria 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 0.929 / def 0.867 | Oleksandria attack 1.029 / def 0.804 | league avg home 1.270 / away 1.134 • Poisson stance: Oleksandria (36%) — low confidence — close contest
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
0.95
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Oleksandria xG
39%
BTTS
59%
Over 1.5
31%
Over 2.5
14%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria kicked off at 11:00 on Saturday 28 September 2024 at Stadion Hirnyk.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria?
Kryvbas KR 0 - 1 Oleksandria.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Hirnyk.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 32% chance of winning, Oleksandria a 36% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Oleksandria the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Oleksandria will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 31%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Oleksandria?
Record (4 meetings): Kryvbas KR 2W | Draws 0 | Oleksandria 2W.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Oleksandria in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-D. Oleksandria (all comps): 7W-3D-0L in 10 | 2.40 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
What do the betting odds say about Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates Kryvbas KR's attack at 0.93x the league average against Oleksandria's defence at 0.80x — combine the two and it projects 0.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Oleksandria's attack (1.03x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.87x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from 36/36 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-1 (15.3%), 0-1 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Oleksandria Win
32%
3.09
32%
3.14
36%
2.80
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.3%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
14.1%
Draw
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.95
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
1.96
1.01
Oleksandria xG
3.09
32%
Home win
3.14
32%
Draw
2.80
36%
Away win
Goals Markets
58%
Over 1.5
1.72
42%
Under 1.5
2.38
31%
Over 2.5
3.23
69%
Under 2.5
1.45
14%
Over 3.5
7.14
86%
Under 3.5
1.16
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.54
61%
BTTS No
1.65
Clean Sheet
36%
2.75
39%
2.58
Win to Nil
12%
8.51
14%
7.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 14.1 | 14.3 | 7.2 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.8 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 6.4 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.8%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Oleksandria expected to score?
The model projects 0.95 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.01 for Oleksandria, a combined total of 1.96.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 36%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 36 outings, Kryvbas KR have picked up 1.89 PPG on a 20W 8D 8L record — L-W-D-W-D across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Oleksandria's form line: 13W 11D 12L from 36 games, 1.39 PPG, last five W-W-W-D-W. It's still early in the season for Oleksandria, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, Kryvbas KR are the form team by 0.50 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Oleksandria.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Kryvbas KR have posted 1.94 PPG from 18 outings (10W 5D 3L).
On the road, Oleksandria have gone 5W 7D 6L from 18 away games — 1.22 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.58 goals scored and 0.97 conceded per game recently; Oleksandria are on 1.17 scored and 1.19 conceded.
Defensively: Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games; Oleksandria in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
Oleksandria
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Oleksandria in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 20W 8D 8L in their last 36 games (1.89 PPG), while Oleksandria have gone 13W 11D 12L in their last 36 (1.39 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Oleksandria away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 1.94 PPG; Oleksandria away: 1.22 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Oleksandria been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Oleksandria in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Kryvbas KR won 3-0 on 7 Dec 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Kryvbas KR have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Oleksandria — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Kryvbas KR
1
Draws
4
Oleksandria
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Oleksandria?
From 8 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 3, Oleksandria have won 4, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Oleksandria last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Oleksandria 1-1 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Oleksandria?
Oleksandria have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Kryvbas KR are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Oleksandria see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Kryvbas KR 44%, Oleksandria 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Kryvbas KR) and 56% (Oleksandria).
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Oleksandria in 44%; Oleksandria in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Oleksandria away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Oleksandria?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 44% of Oleksandria's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Oleksandria usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 56% of Oleksandria's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Oleksandria tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 83% of their recent matches, Oleksandria in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Oleksandria edge out Kryvbas KR 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Oleksandria beat Kryvbas KR 0-1 at Stadion Hirnyk, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 0.95 xG and Oleksandria 1.01 xG, a combined 1.96. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. Kryvbas KR fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 0.93 / defence 0.87 against Oleksandria attack 1.03 / defence 0.80, drawn from 36/36 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 32% | Draw 32% | Oleksandria 36%, with Oleksandria to win its most likely call at 36%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 31%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 59% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 47%, Oleksandria 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 43%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Oleksandria's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.39. Form was overturned, with Oleksandria winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.56 scoring average — below par going forward. Oleksandria (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.