Kryvbas KR 0-0 Lviv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Lviv at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Kryvbas KR vs Lviv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 3 sees Lviv travel to NSK Olimpijs'kyj to take on Kryvbas KR. The game is scheduled for Sunday 4 September 2022, 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Kryvbas KR stand at 0W 0D 2L from 2 Premier League matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L. They are averaging 0.00 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lviv — All Games: 3W 2D 5L from 10 Premier League fixtures this season — 1.10 PPG. Last five: W W L D L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Lviv have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Lviv's away record: 3W 1D 4L from 8 road trips in Premier League this season (1.25 PPG). Away from home they average 0.88 goals scored and 1.75 conceded per game.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Lviv are 1.10 PPG ahead (1.10 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.08 xG and Lviv 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 0.861 / defence 1.150 | Lviv attack 0.993 / defence 1.024. League average goals — home 1.225 / away 1.206. Data: 2 Kryvbas KR games / 19 Lviv games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 28% | Draw 30% | Lviv 42%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 3.57 | Draw 3.33 | Lviv 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.46. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.46 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Lviv at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lviv offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.46 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 1.8 goals per game.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Lviv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: NSK Olimpijs'kyj • Kick-off: Sunday 4 Sep 2022, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 28% | Draw 30% | Lviv 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.08 / Lviv 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 0.861 / def 1.150 | Lviv attack 0.993 / def 1.024 | league avg home 1.225 / away 1.206 • Poisson stance: Lviv (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
1.38
Lviv xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Lviv kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Lviv kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 4 September 2022 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Lviv?
Kryvbas KR 0 - 0 Lviv.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Lviv being played?
The match is being played at NSK Olimpijs'kyj.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Lviv part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Lviv is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Lviv?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 28% chance of winning, Lviv a 42% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Lviv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Lviv?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Lviv will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Lviv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Lviv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Lviv in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 0W-0D-2L in 2 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L. Lviv (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.90 | L5 W-W-L-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Kryvbas KR's attack rating (0.86) and Lviv's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.08 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Lviv's attack versus Kryvbas KR's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (2/19 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.4%. Close behind: 0-0 (10.2%), 0-1 (10.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lviv Win
28%
3.56
30%
3.38
42%
2.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.8%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.46
1.38
Lviv xG
3.56
28%
Home win
3.38
30%
Draw
2.36
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
25%
3.97
34%
2.95
Win to Nil
7%
14.12
14%
6.97
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.6 | 11.8 | 8.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.8 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.0 | 6.9 | 4.7 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.8 | 2.5 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Lviv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.4%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Lviv expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 1.38 for Lviv, a combined total of 2.46.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Lviv?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Kryvbas KR's recent record stands at 0W 0D 2L from 2 games, a 0.00 PPG return, with L-L in the last five. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Lviv, meanwhile, have gone 0W 1D 1L across 2 games — 0.50 PPG, with D-L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Lviv, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours Lviv by 0.50 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Kryvbas KR heading into this one.
The Goals Picture
Kryvbas KR are averaging 0.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Lviv are on 1.50 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kryvbas KR have seen both teams score in 0% of their recent games; Lviv in 100%.
Last 2 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
Lviv
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Lviv in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 0W 0D 2L in their last 2 games (0.00 PPG), while Lviv have gone 0W 1D 1L in their last 2 (0.50 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Kryvbas KR and Lviv runs to 2 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 March 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Kryvbas KR
2
Draws
0
Lviv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Lviv?
From 2 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 0, Lviv have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Lviv last play each other?
They last met on 18 March 2023, when Lviv 2-2 Kryvbas KR.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Lviv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Lviv?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 0% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 100% of Lviv's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Lviv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 0% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 50% of Lviv's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Stalemate at Kryvbas KR's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR and Lviv finished level at 0-0 at NSK Olimpijs'kyj, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.08 xG and Lviv 1.38 xG, a combined 2.46. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Kryvbas KR fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Lviv landed 1.4 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 0.86 / defence 1.15 against Lviv attack 0.99 / defence 1.02, drawn from 2/19 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 28% | Draw 30% | Lviv 42%, with Lviv to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 25% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 0%, Lviv 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, Lviv arrived the stronger side — 0.50 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Kryvbas KR conceded 0 against a 1.00 average — tighter than their form line. Lviv managed 0 against a 1.50 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.