🎯

Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

📰

Dominant LNZ Cherkasy run riot with a 0-3 hammering of Kryvbas KR.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

LNZ Cherkasy beat Kryvbas KR 0-3 at Girnyk, Regular Season - 22, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.08 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.46 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 0-3 for 3 actual goals. Kryvbas KR fell 1.1 short of their projected output. LNZ Cherkasy outscored their 1.46 projection by 1.5. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.25 / defence 0.98 against LNZ Cherkasy attack 1.25 / defence 0.72, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 28% | Draw 26% | LNZ Cherkasy 46%, with LNZ Cherkasy to win its most likely call at 46%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 43%, LNZ Cherkasy 29%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 41%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Kryvbas KR's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.

LNZ Cherkasy's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 37% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 45% of the time, and duly kept one.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Kryvbas KR 1.59 PPG, LNZ Cherkasy 1.53 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the LNZ Cherkasy win broke the near-deadlock. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.64 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 0.96 concession average — a leakier day than usual. LNZ Cherkasy (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 1.08 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights