Kryvbas KR 3-1 Kudrivka – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Kryvbas KR at 63%, yet other data sources diverge — this Kryvbas KR vs Kudrivka fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Kryvbas KR and Kudrivka meet at KSK Nika in Premier League, Regular Season - 8. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 5 October 2025 at 11:00 UTC.
Current Form
Kryvbas KR's overall Premier League record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: W W L W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Kryvbas KR have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Kryvbas KR's home record at KSK Nika: 5W 0D 5L from 10 Premier League appearances (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Kudrivka (all games): 4W 1D 4L across 9 Premier League outings this term — 1.44 points per game. Last five: W D L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.44 per game is modest, conceding 1.44 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 9 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 67% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Kudrivka have played only a handful of Premier League games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Kudrivka have gone 1W 0D 3L from 4 away fixtures this term (0.75 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 25% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 0.75 is notably below their overall 1.44 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Neither side holds a meaningful form edge. The 1.70 vs 1.44 PPG split is negligible — model and market signals should carry more analytical weight for this one.
Both sides have a strong clean-sheet tendency (using home/away splits) — Kryvbas KR have seen both teams score in just 20% of their games, Kudrivka in only 25%. BTTS No has clear statistical support from both squads' form records.
Trading & In-Play
Kryvbas KR — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 25% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (home games).
Kudrivka — key trading statistics (9 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Kryvbas KR 56% and Kudrivka 67% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Kryvbas KR 44% | Kudrivka 67%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Kryvbas KR 1.69 xG and Kudrivka 0.64 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Kryvbas KR attack 1.070 / defence 0.819 | Kudrivka attack 0.613 / defence 1.346. League average goals — home 1.170 / away 1.279. Kudrivka bring a strong defensive rating of 1.346 — this is suppressing Kryvbas KR's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 37 Kryvbas KR games / 7 Kudrivka games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 63% | Draw 24% | Kudrivka 14%. Fair-value odds: Kryvbas KR 1.59 | Draw 4.17 | Kudrivka 7.14. The model has a clear lean to Kryvbas KR (63%) — a 49pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 39% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 39% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kryvbas KR at 63% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 24% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 39% on No. Form rates corroborate: Kryvbas KR 20% | Kudrivka 25% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Kryvbas KR vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: KSK Nika • Kick-off: Sunday 5 Oct 2025, 11:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Kryvbas KR 63% | Draw 24% | Kudrivka 14% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 39% | xG Kryvbas KR 1.69 / Kudrivka 0.64 • Poisson strength factors: Kryvbas KR attack 1.070 / def 0.819 | Kudrivka attack 0.613 / def 1.346 | league avg home 1.170 / away 1.279 • Poisson stance: Kryvbas KR (63%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.69
Kryvbas KR xG
Expected Goals
0.64
Kudrivka xG
39%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Kryvbas KR vs Kudrivka kick off?
Kryvbas KR vs Kudrivka kicked off at 11:00 on Sunday 5 October 2025 at KSK Nika.
What was the final score in Kryvbas KR vs Kudrivka?
Kryvbas KR 3 - 1 Kudrivka.
Where is Kryvbas KR vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at KSK Nika.
What competition is Kryvbas KR vs Kudrivka part of?
Kryvbas KR vs Kudrivka is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Kryvbas KR vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives Kryvbas KR a 63% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 14% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Kryvbas KR the favourite.
Will both teams score in Kryvbas KR vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 39% probability that both Kryvbas KR and Kudrivka will score (BTTS).
Will Kryvbas KR vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Kudrivka?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Kryvbas KR and Kudrivka in?
Kryvbas KR (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-L-W-D. Kudrivka (all comps): 4W-1D-4L in 9 | 1.44 PPG | GF 1.44 / GA 1.44 | L5 W-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Kryvbas KR's attack at 1.07x the league average against Kudrivka's defence at 1.35x — combine the two and it projects 1.69 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Kudrivka's attack (0.61x) against Kryvbas KR's defence (0.82x) — and the away total comes out at 0.64.
These ratings are built from 37/7 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 15.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kryvbas KR Win
63%
1.60
24%
4.25
14%
7.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
13.9%
Home win
1 – 1
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.69
Kryvbas KR xG
Total xG
2.33
0.64
Kudrivka xG
1.60
63%
Home win
4.25
24%
Draw
7.24
14%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
39%
BTTS Yes
2.59
61%
BTTS No
1.63
Clean Sheet
53%
1.90
19%
5.40
Win to Nil
33%
3.03
3%
39.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.4 | 10.6 | 3.4 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 13.9 | 8.9 | 2.9 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.8 | 5.0 | 1.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 3.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Kryvbas KR vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Kryvbas KR and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.69 expected goals for Kryvbas KR and 0.64 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Kryvbas KR vs Kudrivka?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 63%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Kryvbas KR come into this having played 9 games, going 5W 2D 2L for 1.89 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-W-D. It's still early in the season for Kryvbas KR, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Kudrivka sit at 1.44 PPG from 9 outings (4W 1D 4L), a run that reads W-D-L-L-W across their last five. It's still early in the season for Kudrivka, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Kryvbas KR carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.45 PPG clear of Kudrivka — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Kryvbas KR's home form reads 3W 0D 1L across 4 games on their own ground, a 2.25 PPG return.
Away from home, Kudrivka have taken 0.75 points per game from 4 outings (1W 0D 3L). That's a step down from their 1.44 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kudrivka's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kryvbas KR come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Kryvbas KR are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.44 scored and 1.44 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kudrivka in 67%.
Last 9 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Kryvbas KR
Early Season
Kudrivka
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Kryvbas KR and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
Kryvbas KR have gone 5W 2D 2L in their last 9 games (1.89 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 4W 1D 4L in their last 9 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Kryvbas KR at home or Kudrivka away?
Kryvbas KR's home record (2.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Kryvbas KR at home: 2.25 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.75 PPG.
Have Kryvbas KR or Kudrivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Kryvbas KR have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kudrivka in 11%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since October 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 12 April 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Kryvbas KR
0
Draws
0
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Kryvbas KR and Kudrivka?
From 2 meetings on record, Kryvbas KR have won 2, Kudrivka have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Kryvbas KR and Kudrivka last play each other?
They last met on 12 April 2026, when Kudrivka 1-2 Kryvbas KR.
Who has won more matches between Kryvbas KR and Kudrivka?
Kryvbas KR have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Kryvbas KR tend to start slowly — only 25% of their games have a goal by half-time. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 25% (Kryvbas KR) and 25% (Kudrivka) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 25% for Kryvbas KR and 25% for Kudrivka.
On the defensive side: Kryvbas KR keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Kudrivka in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Kryvbas KR home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Kryvbas KR play Kudrivka?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 25% of Kryvbas KR's recent matches and 25% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Kryvbas KR vs Kudrivka usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 25% of Kryvbas KR's recent games and 25% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Kryvbas KR and Kudrivka tend to score early?
Kryvbas KR have had a goal before half-time in 25% of their recent matches, Kudrivka in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Kryvbas KR cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Kudrivka.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Kryvbas KR beat Kudrivka 3-1 at KSK Nika, Regular Season - 8, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Kryvbas KR 1.69 xG and Kudrivka 0.64 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Kryvbas KR beat their projection by 1.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Kryvbas KR attack 1.07 / defence 0.82 against Kudrivka attack 0.61 / defence 1.35, drawn from 37/7 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Kryvbas KR 63% | Draw 24% | Kudrivka 14%, with Kryvbas KR to win its most likely call at 63%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 39% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Kryvbas KR 44%, Kudrivka 67%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Kryvbas KR's trading profile (9 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Kudrivka's trading profile (9 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 67% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kryvbas KR arrived the stronger side — 1.89 PPG against 1.44. That form edge translated into the three points. Kryvbas KR (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.25 average — above their attacking norm. Kudrivka (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.