FC Kharkiv 1-1 LNZ Cherkasy – Result & Analysis

Poisson rates LNZ Cherkasy at 44% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this FC Kharkiv vs LNZ Cherkasy encounter.

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Analysis & Preview

LNZ Cherkasy travel to Stadion Livyi Bereh to take on FC Kharkiv in Premier League (matchday 20). The game is scheduled for Friday 8 March 2024 at 13:30 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, FC Kharkiv have gone 1W 1D 8L — a 0.40 PPG return. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 2.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.70 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.

FC Kharkiv at home: 3W 2D 5L from their last 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — FC Kharkiv are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.

Looking at their last 10 matches, LNZ Cherkasy stand at 4W 4D 2L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W D W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.

LNZ Cherkasy's form when playing away from home: 4W 4D 2L across their last 10 road games (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.

The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. LNZ Cherkasy are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.60 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.

H2H

The H2H picture is flat: the 1 H2H match we hold have produced 1 wins for FC Kharkiv, 0 for LNZ Cherkasy and 0 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.

Goals have been at a premium in this fixture — just 1.0 per game across the 1 H2H match we hold, giving Under 2.5 a clear head-to-head base rate. The most recent of those, on 26 Aug 2023, ended FC Kharkiv 1–0 LNZ Cherkasy — a FC Kharkiv win.

With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

FC Kharkiv in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 9 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 67% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.

LNZ Cherkasy in-play and half-time data (last 20 games, 9 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 44% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 22% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 45% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — FC Kharkiv 55% versus LNZ Cherkasy 40%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (FC Kharkiv 50% | LNZ Cherkasy 50%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects FC Kharkiv 1.02 xG and LNZ Cherkasy 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: FC Kharkiv attack 1.037 / defence 1.352 | LNZ Cherkasy attack 0.870 / defence 0.907. League average goals — home 1.088 / away 1.179. FC Kharkiv's defence rating of 1.352 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing LNZ Cherkasy's projected output up. Data: built from FC Kharkiv's last 49 games and LNZ Cherkasy's last 18.

Result probabilities: FC Kharkiv 26% | Draw 30% | LNZ Cherkasy 44%. Fair-value odds: FC Kharkiv 3.79 | Draw 3.37 | LNZ Cherkasy 2.28. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS Yes probability 49% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 51% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.

Summary & Verdict

The Poisson model's primary lean is LNZ Cherkasy at 44% — marginal model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on LNZ Cherkasy offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 57% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: FC Kharkiv 60% (last 10 home games) | LNZ Cherkasy 30% (last 10 away games).

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