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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Veres Rivne edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-3.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Veres Rivne beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-3 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.12 xG and Veres Rivne 1.61 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Veres Rivne outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.06 / defence 1.56 against Veres Rivne attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 26% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 48%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 54%, Veres Rivne 9%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.

Veres Rivne's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.91 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Veres Rivne win broke the near-deadlock. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights