Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-3 Veres Rivne – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates Veres Rivne at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier League encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees Veres Rivne travel to Ternopilsky Misky Stadion to take on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi. The game is scheduled for Saturday 1 November 2025, 16:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi stand at 3W 0D 7L from 10 Premier League matches — 0.90 PPG. Last five: L L L W W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 0W 1D 4L this season (5 games, 0.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 3.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.20 lags behind their overall 0.90 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this season.
Across all Premier League games this season, Veres Rivne have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L D D D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Veres Rivne, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Veres Rivne have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.90 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, Veres Rivne 1, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 2 Jun 2024, ended 1–3 with Veres Rivne winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (11 games, 4 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
Veres Rivne in-play and half-time data (11 games, 4 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 0% of games (away games); they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 54% versus Veres Rivne 36%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 54% | Veres Rivne 9%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.12 xG and Veres Rivne 1.61 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.064 / defence 1.565 | Veres Rivne attack 0.805 / defence 0.932. League average goals — home 1.129 / away 1.280. Data: 10 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 40 Veres Rivne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 26% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 48%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3.85 | Draw 3.70 | Veres Rivne 2.08. Veres Rivne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 55% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 55% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Veres Rivne at 48% — moderate model lean. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Veres Rivne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.73 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 51% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.4 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 55% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 80% | Veres Rivne 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Ternopilsky Misky Stadion • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Nov 2025, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 26% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 48% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 55% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.12 / Veres Rivne 1.61 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.064 / def 1.565 | Veres Rivne attack 0.805 / def 0.932 | league avg home 1.129 / away 1.280 • Poisson stance: Veres Rivne (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
1.61
Veres Rivne xG
55%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne kicked off at 16:00 on Saturday 1 November 2025 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2 - 3 Veres Rivne.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne being played?
The match is being played at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 26% chance of winning, Veres Rivne a 48% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Veres Rivne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne?
Record (2 meetings): Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0W | Draws 1 | Veres Rivne 1W.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-0D-7L in 10 | 0.90 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-L-W-W. Veres Rivne (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-L-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack rating (1.06) and Veres Rivne's defence rating (0.93), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Veres Rivne's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 1.61 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/40 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.5%), 0-1 (9.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Veres Rivne Win
26%
3.92
27%
3.76
48%
2.09
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.5%
Away win
1 – 2
9.5%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.73
1.61
Veres Rivne xG
3.92
26%
Home win
3.76
27%
Draw
2.09
48%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.82
45%
BTTS No
2.22
Clean Sheet
20%
5.01
33%
3.06
Win to Nil
5%
19.65
16%
6.40
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 10.5 | 8.5 | 4.5 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.3 | 11.8 | 9.5 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 4.1 | 6.6 | 5.3 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 2.5 | 2.0 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.61 for Veres Rivne, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come into this having played 11 games, going 3W 1D 7L for 0.91 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-L-W-W. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Veres Rivne sit at 1.00 PPG from 11 outings (2W 5D 4L), a run that reads D-L-D-D-D across their last five. The sample for Veres Rivne is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 0.91 PPG, Veres Rivne on 1.00. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home form reads 0W 0D 4L across 4 games on their own ground, a 0.00 PPG return. That actually lags their 0.91 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
Away from home, Veres Rivne have taken 1.25 points per game from 4 outings (1W 2D 1L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Veres Rivne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.82 conceded per game recently; Veres Rivne are on 0.73 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Veres Rivne in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 11 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
Veres Rivne
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 3W 1D 7L in their last 11 games (0.91 PPG), while Veres Rivne have gone 2W 5D 4L in their last 11 (1.00 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or Veres Rivne away?
Veres Rivne's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 0.00 PPG; Veres Rivne away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Veres Rivne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, Veres Rivne in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
5 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. The two were last together as recently as 14 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The last 2 meetings have all been drawn — an unusually settled recent run for this fixture.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's record when hosting Veres Rivne specifically: 0W 2D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 5 Meetings
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
3
Draws
2
Veres Rivne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne?
From 5 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, Veres Rivne have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne last play each other?
They last met on 14 August 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-0 Veres Rivne.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne?
Veres Rivne have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 5 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Veres Rivne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 75%, Veres Rivne 25% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 75% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 0% (Veres Rivne).
On the defensive side: Veres Rivne in 50%; Veres Rivne in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Veres Rivne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play Veres Rivne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 75% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 25% of Veres Rivne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Veres Rivne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 75% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 0% of Veres Rivne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Veres Rivne tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Veres Rivne in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Veres Rivne edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-3.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Veres Rivne beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2-3 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.12 xG and Veres Rivne 1.61 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-3 for 5 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Veres Rivne outscored their 1.61 projection by 1.4. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.06 / defence 1.56 against Veres Rivne attack 0.81 / defence 0.93, drawn from 10/40 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 26% | Draw 27% | Veres Rivne 48%, with Veres Rivne to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 32% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 54%, Veres Rivne 9%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (11 games, 4 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
Veres Rivne's trading profile (11 games, 4 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.91 PPG, Veres Rivne 1.00 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Veres Rivne win broke the near-deadlock. Veres Rivne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.75 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.50 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.