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Stalemate at Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 30, as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and SK Poltava drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.11 xG and SK Poltava 0.80 xG, a combined 2.91. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fell 2.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.10 / defence 0.98 against SK Poltava attack 0.66 / defence 1.55, drawn from 29/29 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 67% | Draw 21% | SK Poltava 12%, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi to win its most likely call at 67%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 56%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 52%, SK Poltava 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (29 games, 14 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 31% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 34% of games, a blank that repeated today.

SK Poltava's trading profile (29 games, 14 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi arrived the stronger side — 1.07 PPG against 0.41. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.57 average — tighter than their form line. SK Poltava (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 2.50 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights