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Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.

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Prediction vindicated as Obolon'-Brovar edge out Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-2.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Obolon'-Brovar beat Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1-2 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 12, in the Premier League. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.17 xG and Obolon'-Brovar 1.64 xG, a combined 2.81. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.14 / defence 1.68 against Obolon'-Brovar attack 0.77 / defence 0.91, drawn from 11/41 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 27% | Draw 25% | Obolon'-Brovar 48%, with Obolon'-Brovar to win its most likely call at 48%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 53%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 58%, Obolon'-Brovar 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (12 games, 6 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.

Obolon'-Brovar's trading profile (12 games, 6 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.

Form vs Result

On form, Obolon'-Brovar arrived the stronger side — 1.33 PPG against 0.83. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 2 against a 3.00 average — tighter than their form line. Obolon'-Brovar (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.83 average — above their attacking norm.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.

💡 Key Insights