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Stalemate at Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv finished level at 0-0 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.12 xG and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.96 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.09 / defence 1.58 against Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 21% | Draw 22% | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 57%, with Metalist 1925 Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 57%, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.86 average — tighter than their form line. Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.

💡 Key Insights