Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0-0 FC Kharkiv – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates FC Kharkiv at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Ternopilsky Misky Stadion plays host to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi versus FC Kharkiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 30 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this season: 0W 1D 6L from 7 home games — 0.14 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 2.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.14 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this season.
FC Kharkiv's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for FC Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, FC Kharkiv have gone 4W 4D 1L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
FC Kharkiv arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
Trading Data
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.
FC Kharkiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 57% versus FC Kharkiv 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 57% | FC Kharkiv 21%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.12 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.091 / defence 1.582 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.923 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.341. Data: 13 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 13 FC Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 21% | Draw 22% | FC Kharkiv 57%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4.76 | Draw 4.55 | FC Kharkiv 1.75. The model has a clear lean to FC Kharkiv (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates FC Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 86% | FC Kharkiv 56% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Ternopilsky Misky Stadion • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Nov 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 21% | Draw 22% | FC Kharkiv 57% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 59% | BTTS 58% | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.12 / FC Kharkiv 1.96 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.091 / def 1.582 | FC Kharkiv attack 0.923 / def 0.917 | league avg home 1.121 / away 1.341 • Poisson stance: FC Kharkiv (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.12
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
1.96
FC Kharkiv xG
58%
BTTS
81%
Over 1.5
59%
Over 2.5
37%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 30 November 2025 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What was the final score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0 - 0 FC Kharkiv.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv being played?
The match is being played at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 21% chance of winning, FC Kharkiv a 57% chance, and a 22% chance of a draw — making FC Kharkiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv?
Our model estimates a 58% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv will score (BTTS).
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 59%.
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv in?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 1.60 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. FC Kharkiv (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack rating (1.09) and FC Kharkiv's defence rating (0.92), the model arrives at 1.12 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — FC Kharkiv's attack (0.92x) against Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence (1.58x) — and the away total comes out at 1.96.
These ratings are built from 13/13 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 11.4%. Close behind: 1-2 (9.9%), 0-2 (8.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 30% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
FC Kharkiv Win
21%
4.67
22%
4.59
57%
1.76
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
10.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 2
9.9%
Away win
0 – 1
9.0%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.12
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
3.08
1.96
FC Kharkiv xG
4.67
21%
Home win
4.59
22%
Draw
1.76
57%
Away win
Goals Markets
81%
Over 1.5
1.23
19%
Under 1.5
5.26
59%
Over 2.5
1.69
41%
Under 2.5
2.44
37%
Over 3.5
2.70
63%
Under 3.5
1.59
20%
Over 4.5
5.00
80%
Under 4.5
1.25
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
58%
BTTS Yes
1.73
42%
BTTS No
2.38
Clean Sheet
14%
7.09
33%
3.07
Win to Nil
3%
33.13
18%
5.41
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.6 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 1.1 |
| 1 | 5.2 | 10.1 | 9.9 | 6.5 | 3.2 | 1.2 |
| 2 | 2.9 | 5.7 | 5.5 | 3.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 |
| 3 | 1.1 | 2.1 | 2.1 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.4%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv expected to score?
The model projects 1.12 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 1.96 for FC Kharkiv, a combined total of 3.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent record stands at 3W 2D 9L from 14 games, a 0.79 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
FC Kharkiv, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 3L across 14 games — 1.64 PPG, with D-L-D-L-W in their last five. The sample for FC Kharkiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours FC Kharkiv by 0.85 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Epitsentr Dunayivtsi heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have managed 0W 1D 6L from 7 games — 0.14 PPG in front of their own supporters. That actually lags their 0.79 PPG overall record — home advantage hasn't been translating into results for them lately.
FC Kharkiv's away record stands at 3W 3D 1L across 7 trips, a 1.71 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, FC Kharkiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 1.79 conceded per game recently; FC Kharkiv are on 1.14 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: FC Kharkiv in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 14 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
FC Kharkiv
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 3W 2D 9L in their last 14 games (0.79 PPG), while FC Kharkiv have gone 6W 5D 3L in their last 14 (1.64 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or FC Kharkiv away?
FC Kharkiv's away record (1.71 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 0.14 PPG; FC Kharkiv away: 1.71 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or FC Kharkiv been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, FC Kharkiv in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since November 2025 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. They last met on 16 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Last 2 Meetings
0
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
2
Draws
0
FC Kharkiv
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv?
From 2 meetings on record, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 0, FC Kharkiv have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv last play each other?
They last met on 16 May 2026, when FC Kharkiv 1-1 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 86% of their matches.
FC Kharkiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 29% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS has landed consistently for both sides recently — 86% for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, 57% for FC Kharkiv — a strong two-way scoring signal.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 86% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 29% (FC Kharkiv). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 57% and 14% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: FC Kharkiv in 29%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / FC Kharkiv away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi play FC Kharkiv?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 86% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's games and 57% of FC Kharkiv's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs FC Kharkiv usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 86% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's matches and 29% of FC Kharkiv's.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv tend to score early?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have had a goal before half-time in 86% of their recent matches, FC Kharkiv in 71% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and FC Kharkiv finished level at 0-0 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 14, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.12 xG and FC Kharkiv 1.96 xG, a combined 3.08. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fell 1.1 short of their projected output. FC Kharkiv landed 2.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.09 / defence 1.58 against FC Kharkiv attack 0.92 / defence 0.92, drawn from 13/13 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 21% | Draw 22% | FC Kharkiv 57%, with FC Kharkiv to win its most likely call at 57%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 59%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 81% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 58% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 57%, FC Kharkiv 21%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (14 games, 7 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
FC Kharkiv's trading profile (14 games, 7 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, FC Kharkiv arrived the stronger side — 1.64 PPG against 0.79. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.71 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 2.86 average — tighter than their form line. FC Kharkiv (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.43 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.86 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.