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Poisson rates Metalist 1925 Kharkiv at 57% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Metalist 1925 Kharkiv encounter.

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Full Analysis

Ternopilsky Misky Stadion plays host to Epitsentr Dunayivtsi versus Metalist 1925 Kharkiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 14. Kick-off: Sunday 30 November 2025 at 13:30 UTC.

Form & Momentum

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 3W 1D 6L. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.40 goals per game and conceding 1.60 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this season: 0W 1D 6L from 7 home games — 0.14 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.71 goals scored and 2.86 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 86% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.14 lags behind their overall 1.00 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion this season.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv's overall Premier League record this term: 4W 4D 2L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L D L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for Metalist 1925 Kharkiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, Metalist 1925 Kharkiv have gone 4W 4D 1L from 9 away fixtures this term (1.78 PPG). Away from home they average 1.33 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 56% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv arrive in superior form — a 0.60 PPG advantage (1.60 vs 1.00) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.

Trading Data

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at home): they score before half-time in 86% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 86% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 86% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%.

Metalist 1925 Kharkiv goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (14 games, 7 at away): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 29% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 57% versus Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 43%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 57% | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 21%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.12 xG and Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.091 / defence 1.582 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv attack 0.923 / defence 0.917. League average goals — home 1.121 / away 1.341. Data: 13 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi games / 13 Metalist 1925 Kharkiv games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 21% | Draw 22% | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 57%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 4.76 | Draw 4.55 | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 1.75. The model has a clear lean to Metalist 1925 Kharkiv (57%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 59% | BTTS probability 58% | Total xG 3.08. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 59% — the 3.08 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 58% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Final Verdict

Poisson rates Metalist 1925 Kharkiv as the most likely outcome at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 22% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.

Poisson projects 3.08 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 59% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 3.3 goals per game.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 58% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 86% | Metalist 1925 Kharkiv 56% BTTS from recent games.

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