Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka Prediction & Preview
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Poisson model rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at 50% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi face Kudrivka.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi welcome Kudrivka to Tonkocheyev Stadium in Premier League (matchday 19). Kick-off is Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time.
Form Guide
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi — last 10 games: 1W 4D 5L, averaging 0.70 points per game. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across their last 10 home games (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Kudrivka stand at 2W 1D 7L — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.40 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Kudrivka's away record over their last 10 away games: 0W 3D 7L (0.30 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form comparison is too close to call — 0.70 PPG (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) versus 0.70 (Kudrivka). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 3 H2H matches, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 2, Kudrivka 1, with 0 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.
The 3 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 29 Aug 2026, ended Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 3–0 Kudrivka — a Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 43% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; of the 9 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 56%; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
Kudrivka in-play and half-time data (last 42 games, 21 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 71% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; of the 11 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 54%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%; they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% versus Kudrivka 57%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50% | Kudrivka 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.59 xG and Kudrivka 0.92 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.792 / defence 1.045 | Kudrivka attack 0.842 / defence 1.566. League average goals — home 1.278 / away 1.040. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack rating of 0.792 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.59. Kudrivka's defence rating of 1.566 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's projected output up. Data: built from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 42 games and Kudrivka's last 42.
Result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50% | Draw 32% | Kudrivka 18%. Fair-value odds: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 2.02 | Draw 3.09 | Kudrivka 5.51. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (32%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Epitsentr Dunayivtsi as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Epitsentr Dunayivtsi offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.50 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 54% probability — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 51%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 40% (last 10 home games) | Kudrivka 70% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka | Competition: Premier League, matchday 19 | Venue: Tonkocheyev Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 13 March 2027 at 16:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 50% | Draw 32% | Kudrivka 18% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.59 / Kudrivka 0.92 • Poisson strength factors: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.792 / def 1.045 | Kudrivka attack 0.842 / def 1.566 | league avg home 1.278 / away 1.040 • Poisson stance: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.59
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Expected Goals
0.92
Kudrivka xG
51%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka FAQs
What time does Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka kick off?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka is scheduled to kick off at 16:00 UK time on Saturday 13 March 2027 at Tonkocheyev Stadium.
Where is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka being played?
The match is being played at Tonkocheyev Stadium.
What competition is Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka part of?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka is a Premier League fixture (matchday 19) (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Our statistical model gives Epitsentr Dunayivtsi a 50% chance of winning, Kudrivka a 18% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Epitsentr Dunayivtsi the favourite.
Will both teams score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's attack rating (0.79) and Kudrivka's defence rating (1.57), the model arrives at 1.59 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kudrivka's attack versus Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's defence, projects 0.92 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's last 42 games and Kudrivka's last 42 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.4%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.5%), 2-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi Win
50%
2.02
32%
3.09
18%
5.51
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.0%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.9%
Draw
2 – 0
10.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.59
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi xG
Total xG
2.50
0.92
Kudrivka xG
2.02
50%
Home win
3.09
32%
Draw
5.51
18%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
40%
2.50
20%
4.88
Win to Nil
20%
5.04
4%
26.90
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 7.5 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 13.0 | 11.9 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.3 | 9.4 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.5 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 2.0 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.4%.
How many goals are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka expected to score?
The model projects 1.59 expected goals for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and 0.92 for Kudrivka, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come into this having played 42 games, going 10W 12D 20L for 1.00 points per game. Their last five reads L-D-L-L-D.
On the other side, Kudrivka sit at 0.90 PPG from 42 outings (9W 11D 22L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi on 1.00 PPG, Kudrivka on 0.90. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home form reads 5W 7D 9L across their last 21 home games, a 1.05 PPG return.
Away from home, Kudrivka have taken 0.38 points per game from their last 21 away games (1W 5D 15L). That's a step down from their 0.90 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Kudrivka's recent record.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Kudrivka are on 1.10 scored and 1.71 conceded.
Last 42 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
Kudrivka
Blended
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (Home) vs Kudrivka (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
Blended
Kudrivka
Blended
❓ Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka Form FAQs
What form are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka in coming into this match?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have gone 10W 12D 20L in their last 42 games (1.00 PPG), while Kudrivka have gone 9W 11D 22L in their last 42 (0.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home or Kudrivka away?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's home record (1.05 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi at home: 1.05 PPG; Kudrivka away: 0.38 PPG.
Have Epitsentr Dunayivtsi or Kudrivka been keeping clean sheets recently?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Kudrivka in 19%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 3 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 1 year from September 2025. All of them came in Premier League. The most recent was as recently as 29 August 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 29 Aug 2026, when Epitsentr Dunayivtsi won Kudrivka 0-3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Last 3 Meetings
2
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi
0
Draws
1
Kudrivka
Recent Meetings
❓ Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka?
Across the 3 head-to-head matches in our data, Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have won 2, Kudrivka have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 29 August 2026: Kudrivka 0-3 Epitsentr Dunayivtsi.
Who has won more matches between Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka?
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 3 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Epitsentr Dunayivtsi see a goal before the break in 43% of their matches.
Kudrivka are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 43%, Kudrivka 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi) and 48% (Kudrivka).
On the defensive side: Epitsentr Dunayivtsi keep a clean sheet in 43% of their matches; Epitsentr Dunayivtsi have failed to score in 38% of games; Kudrivka in 43%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Epitsentr Dunayivtsi home games / Kudrivka away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Epitsentr Dunayivtsi vs Kudrivka Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 52% of Kudrivka's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent games and 48% of Kudrivka's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Kudrivka matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 43% of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's recent matches and 71% of Kudrivka's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.