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Dominant Epitsentr Dunayivtsi run riot with a 4-0 hammering of Kolos Kovalivka.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat Kolos Kovalivka 4-0 at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 19, in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 0.78 xG and Kolos Kovalivka 1.56 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 4-0 for 4 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi beat their projection by 3.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Kolos Kovalivka landed 1.6 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 0.82 / defence 1.37 against Kolos Kovalivka attack 0.95 / defence 0.81, drawn from 18/48 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 19% | Draw 25% | Kolos Kovalivka 56%, with Kolos Kovalivka to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a Epitsentr Dunayivtsi win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 42% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 58%, Kolos Kovalivka 26%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (19 games, 9 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not.

Kolos Kovalivka's trading profile (19 games, 9 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

On form, Kolos Kovalivka arrived the stronger side — 1.53 PPG against 0.79. Form was overturned, with Epitsentr Dunayivtsi winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.33 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 2.44 average — tighter than their form line. Kolos Kovalivka (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.22 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 4 against a 0.78 concession average — a leakier day than usual.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.

💡 Key Insights