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Stalemate at Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.

📝 Match Report

How It Unfolded

The points were shared at Ternopilsky Misky Stadion, Regular Season - 24, as Epitsentr Dunayivtsi and Karpaty drew 0-0 in the Premier League. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.

The Model vs The Result

The Poisson model went into this projecting Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.12 xG and Karpaty 1.29 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Karpaty landed 1.3 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Epitsentr Dunayivtsi attack 1.07 / defence 1.05 against Karpaty attack 1.08 / defence 0.84, drawn from 23/53 games (CurrentSeason).

On the result, the model split it Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 32% | Draw 27% | Karpaty 40%, with Karpaty to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.

Goals & Markets

The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 54%, Karpaty 42%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.

Trading Patterns vs Reality

Epitsentr Dunayivtsi's trading profile (24 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Karpaty's trading profile (24 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.

Form vs Result

The form lines were close — Epitsentr Dunayivtsi 1.00 PPG, Karpaty 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Epitsentr Dunayivtsi (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.45 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.73 average — tighter than their form line. Karpaty (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.36 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.91 average — tighter than their form line.

Verdict

Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.

💡 Key Insights