Dynamo Kyiv 2-0 Livyi Bereh – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv at 56% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dynamo Kyiv vs Livyi Bereh encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Livyi Bereh make the trip to Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi to face Dynamo Kyiv in Premier League, Regular Season - 23. The match kicks off on Sunday 6 April 2025 at 13:30 UTC.
Form
Dynamo Kyiv (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Premier League fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: W D W D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.60 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.60 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. This season is still relatively young for Dynamo Kyiv, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Dynamo Kyiv's form when playing at home: 7W 3D 0L across 10 games at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi this term (2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Livyi Bereh have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier League outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No. This season is still relatively young for Livyi Bereh, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Livyi Bereh's away record: 3W 2D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier League this season (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 10% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Form favours the hosts. Dynamo Kyiv's 2.20 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of Livyi Bereh's 1.40 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 1 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Dynamo Kyiv, 0 for Livyi Bereh and 0 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 29 Sep 2024, ended 3–0 with Dynamo Kyiv winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading
Dynamo Kyiv half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 11 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; they lead at the break 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (home games).
Livyi Bereh half-time and goal-timing data (25 games, 11 at away): they score before half-time in 27% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 77% of the time; BTTS occurs in 9% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 18% of games (away games); they fail to score in 60% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dynamo Kyiv 60% versus Livyi Bereh 20%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dynamo Kyiv 56% | Livyi Bereh 24%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dynamo Kyiv 1.44 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.345 / defence 0.980 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.745 / defence 0.918. League average goals — home 1.164 / away 0.898. Dynamo Kyiv carry an above-average attack strength of 1.345 — their λ of 1.44 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 52 Dynamo Kyiv games / 21 Livyi Bereh games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 56% | Draw 27% | Livyi Bereh 17%. Fair-value odds: Dynamo Kyiv 1.79 | Draw 3.70 | Livyi Bereh 5.88. The model has a clear lean to Dynamo Kyiv (56%) — a 39pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 37% | Total xG 2.09. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.09 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 37% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dynamo Kyiv as the most likely outcome at 56% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.09 combined xG gives a 35% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 37%. Form rates corroborate: Dynamo Kyiv 60% | Livyi Bereh 10% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dynamo Kyiv vs Livyi Bereh | Competition: Premier League, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Apr 2025, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dynamo Kyiv 56% | Draw 27% | Livyi Bereh 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 37% | xG Dynamo Kyiv 1.44 / Livyi Bereh 0.66 • Poisson strength factors: Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.345 / def 0.980 | Livyi Bereh attack 0.745 / def 0.918 | league avg home 1.164 / away 0.898 • Poisson stance: Dynamo Kyiv (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.44
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Expected Goals
0.66
Livyi Bereh xG
37%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dynamo Kyiv vs Livyi Bereh kick off?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Livyi Bereh kicked off at 13:30 on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What was the final score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Dynamo Kyiv 2 - 0 Livyi Bereh.
Where is Dynamo Kyiv vs Livyi Bereh being played?
The match is being played at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi.
What competition is Dynamo Kyiv vs Livyi Bereh part of?
Dynamo Kyiv vs Livyi Bereh is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Premier League (Ukraine).
Who is favourite to win Dynamo Kyiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Our statistical model gives Dynamo Kyiv a 56% chance of winning, Livyi Bereh a 17% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Dynamo Kyiv the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dynamo Kyiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Our model estimates a 37% probability that both Dynamo Kyiv and Livyi Bereh will score (BTTS).
Will Dynamo Kyiv vs Livyi Bereh have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Livyi Bereh?
Record (1 meetings): Dynamo Kyiv 1W | Draws 0 | Livyi Bereh 0W.
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Livyi Bereh in?
Dynamo Kyiv (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-D-W-D-W. Livyi Bereh (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Dynamo Kyiv's attack at 1.34x the league average against Livyi Bereh's defence at 0.92x — combine the two and it projects 1.44 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Livyi Bereh's attack (0.74x) against Dynamo Kyiv's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.66.
These ratings are built from 52/21 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 16.2% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.9%), 1-1 (13.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 43% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dynamo Kyiv Win
56%
1.79
27%
3.70
17%
5.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
17.7%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
0 – 0
12.3%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.44
Dynamo Kyiv xG
Total xG
2.09
0.66
Livyi Bereh xG
1.79
56%
Home win
3.70
27%
Draw
5.89
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
37%
BTTS Yes
2.73
63%
BTTS No
1.58
Clean Sheet
52%
1.93
24%
4.21
Win to Nil
29%
3.44
4%
24.77
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 8.1 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 17.7 | 11.6 | 3.8 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.1 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.2 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dynamo Kyiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 16.2%.
How many goals are Dynamo Kyiv and Livyi Bereh expected to score?
The model projects 1.44 expected goals for Dynamo Kyiv and 0.66 for Livyi Bereh, a combined total of 2.09.
How confident is the prediction model for Dynamo Kyiv vs Livyi Bereh?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dynamo Kyiv's recent record stands at 18W 6D 1L from 25 games, a 2.40 PPG return, with W-D-W-D-W in the last five. The sample for Dynamo Kyiv is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Livyi Bereh, meanwhile, have gone 7W 6D 12L across 25 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-L-W-W-L in their last five. The sample for Livyi Bereh is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Dynamo Kyiv by 1.32 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Livyi Bereh heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dynamo Kyiv have managed 8W 3D 0L from 11 games — 2.45 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Livyi Bereh's away record stands at 3W 2D 6L across 11 trips, a 1.00 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Dynamo Kyiv come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dynamo Kyiv are averaging 2.04 goals scored and 0.72 conceded per game recently; Livyi Bereh are on 0.68 scored and 1.00 conceded. Dynamo Kyiv's scoring rate against Livyi Bereh's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
On BTTS specifically: Dynamo Kyiv have seen both teams score in 60% of their recent games; Livyi Bereh in 20%.
Defensively: Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Premier League
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dynamo Kyiv
Blended
Livyi Bereh
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dynamo Kyiv and Livyi Bereh in coming into this match?
Dynamo Kyiv have gone 18W 6D 1L in their last 25 games (2.40 PPG), while Livyi Bereh have gone 7W 6D 12L in their last 25 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dynamo Kyiv at home or Livyi Bereh away?
Dynamo Kyiv's home record (2.45 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dynamo Kyiv at home: 2.45 PPG; Livyi Bereh away: 1.00 PPG.
Have Dynamo Kyiv or Livyi Bereh been keeping clean sheets recently?
Dynamo Kyiv have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Livyi Bereh in 32%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 2 times since September 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier League. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2025, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Last 2 Meetings
2
Dynamo Kyiv
0
Draws
0
Livyi Bereh
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dynamo Kyiv and Livyi Bereh?
From 2 meetings on record, Dynamo Kyiv have won 2, Livyi Bereh have won 0, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Dynamo Kyiv and Livyi Bereh last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2025, when Dynamo Kyiv 2-0 Livyi Bereh.
Who has won more matches between Dynamo Kyiv and Livyi Bereh?
Dynamo Kyiv have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 2 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dynamo Kyiv are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 64% of the time.
Livyi Bereh tend to start slowly — only 27% of their games have a goal by half-time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Dynamo Kyiv 64%, Livyi Bereh 9% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 64% (Dynamo Kyiv) and 18% (Livyi Bereh).
On the defensive side: Dynamo Kyiv keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Livyi Bereh in 36%; Livyi Bereh in 73%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dynamo Kyiv home games / Livyi Bereh away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dynamo Kyiv play Livyi Bereh?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 64% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent matches and 9% of Livyi Bereh's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dynamo Kyiv vs Livyi Bereh usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 64% of Dynamo Kyiv's recent games and 18% of Livyi Bereh's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dynamo Kyiv and Livyi Bereh tend to score early?
Dynamo Kyiv have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, Livyi Bereh in 27% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dynamo Kyiv cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Livyi Bereh.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dynamo Kyiv beat Livyi Bereh 2-0 at Stadion Dynamo im. Valeriy Lobanovskyi, Regular Season - 23, in the Premier League. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dynamo Kyiv 1.44 xG and Livyi Bereh 0.66 xG, a combined 2.09. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dynamo Kyiv attack 1.34 / defence 0.98 against Livyi Bereh attack 0.74 / defence 0.92, drawn from 52/21 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dynamo Kyiv 56% | Draw 27% | Livyi Bereh 17%, with Dynamo Kyiv to win its most likely call at 56%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 37% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dynamo Kyiv 56%, Livyi Bereh 24%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 40%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dynamo Kyiv's trading profile (25 games, 11 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 60% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Livyi Bereh's trading profile (25 games, 11 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 20% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 60% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Dynamo Kyiv arrived the stronger side — 2.40 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points. Dynamo Kyiv (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. Livyi Bereh (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 0.91 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.